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iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF Newsroom
Powell's "Christmas gift": U.S. Treasury yields breaking above 4.6%.
Powell's "Christmas gift" this year is a hawkish rate cut. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate cut forecast, suggesting that there will only be two more cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts suggested in September. The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to reach around 4% by the end of next year, which means one to two rate cuts.
The inflation outlook is controversial, and there are three factions within the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve officials seem to have divided into three factions regarding the future interest rate outlook, with which one prevails depending on the degree of inflation slowdown next year.
Interest rate cuts for a hundred days, US Treasury bond "interest rate hikes of a hundred points"! The last time it was worse than this was in 1980...
With the USA stock and bond markets officially entering the Christmas holiday this Wednesday, the US bond market is actually experiencing the overlap of three "100s": ① 100 days of interest rate cuts, ② 100 points of interest rate cuts, and also...
Futu Morning Post | Christmas carnival begins! US stocks closed higher across the board, and Tesla surged more than 7%; OpenAI exploded to consider developing humanoid robots
Large Banks have filed a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve citing a lack of transparency in stress tests; Apple is seeking to defend itself against the billions of dollars paid to Google in the antitrust case regarding search.
US 5-Year Auction High Yield Rises From Previous Month, Demand Lower
Consumer and National Debt Weigh on Otherwise Bullish 2025 Outlook
Treasuries Fall as Long Rates Expand Gap Over Short Maturities
U.S. stocks in the early market | The three major indexes rose, with the Nasdaq up nearly 1%, and Apple and Palantir hitting new highs; Bitcoin returned to $97,000, and the stocks related to Cryptos also rose, with MSTR up nearly 7%.
On the evening of the 24th Beijing time, the US stock market opened slightly higher. Today, the US stock market will close early, and the trading time this week is shortened due to the holiday, with relatively light trading expected during the Christmas period.
US stock outlook | Is the "Christmas rally" for US stocks approaching? Several small-cap companies are surging in pre-market trading, while American Airlines experienced temporary flight cancellations due to technical issues.
News reports that Meta will launch screen-equipped smart glasses, with the earliest release in the second half of next year; Apple's new Global Strategy has been revealed, abandoning car manufacturing to shift to Smart Home.
Daily Options Tracking | AI chip stocks surged collectively yesterday! Multiple Call contracts for Broadcom earned over 3 times, Call ratio for NVIDIA skyrocketed to 72%, and AMD Options trading was vibrant, rising to 0.84 million contracts.
The "meme stock" cannabis giant Tilray Brands closed yesterday up 13.49%, with Options trading surging 4.6 times compared to the previous trading day to 0.34 million contracts, of which Call options accounted for 94.4%, and implied volatility soared to a high of 168%; the most active Call option with a strike price of $2 expiring on January 17, 2025, had a trading volume of over 0.046 million contracts, with an open interest of 0.096 million contracts.
The US stock market faces two headwinds; is it difficult for the rebound to gain a foothold?
Analysts believe that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar need to cool down for U.S. stocks to continue their rebound.
What major trends are implied behind the ten historic numbers of 2024?
From Bitcoin prices breaking 0.1 million dollars, to Musk's exorbitant compensation package, and the record-low fertility rates in Japan and South Korea, each number hides a complex story, reflecting the fluctuations of the Global economy, policy shifts, market turmoil, and leaps in Technology.
The number one theme in the Global market for 2025 is: "Higher and Longer" returns.
The chief economist of Apollo stated that, whether looking at the Federal Reserve's short-term expectations, long-term expectations, or market expectations, the USA interest rate expectations are rising, and the FOMC expects the federal funds rate to remain at the current level through the end of 2026.
The selling of US bonds continues ahead of Christmas Eve! The US market will close early today.
① For Wall Street traders, this week's trade in the USA market will be split into two segments due to the arrival of the Christmas holiday; ② However, at least in the first half of this week, within less than two full trading days, bond bulls in the USA still seem unable to see any signs of easing selling pressure.
Chief Economist of Allianz: The Federal Reserve's repeated 'flip-flopping' will endanger the USA exceptionalism.
Erian believes that the Federal Reserve is being led by data, and its highly passive decision-making approach in recent years has amplified financial volatility.
Buckle up! Goldman Sachs: Market optimism is nearing its peak, Bullish on two defensive Sectors.
①Goldman Sachs advises investors to take more "defensive measures" as Wall Street's optimism about the USA economy and stock market approaches historical highs. ②Goldman Sachs' model is bullish on the performance of defensive stocks such as utilities and Medical Care.
Wall Street 'agrees' with the Federal Reserve: predicts that the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield will drop by 50 basis points next year.
According to Zhitong Finance, Wall Street is forecasting that short-term USA Treasury yields will fall by 2025, despite the looming threats posed by the trade and tax policies of incoming President Trump on the Bonds market. Strategists' predictions are largely consistent, believing that the 2-year USA Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed rate policy, will decline. They expect that 12 months from now, rates will fall at least 50 basis points from current levels. The JPMorgan Asset Management team, led by David Kelly, stated in the company's annual outlook: "While investors may be short-sightedly focusing on the speed of interest rate cuts next year and
Futu Daily News | The Federal Reserve FOMC voting committee has a new lineup in the new year! The policy stance is expected to further polarize between dovish and hawkish factions; with the Christmas holiday approaching, Hong Kong stocks open half a day t
The NASDAQ 100 Index has been rebalanced, with the weights of Tesla, Meta, and Broadcom decreasing; competition in wearable devices is intensifying! Meta plans to add a display to its smart glasses; the "Santa Claus rally" is late this year, Analysts say there will still be opportunities after the holidays.
Consumer confidence in the USA has dropped for the first time in three months, as concerns about Trump's tariff increases grow.
① In December, the Consumer Confidence Index in the USA fell to 104.7, below the expected value of 113.2, marking the first decline in three months; ② An increasing number of consumers are mentioning politics and tariffs, with 46% of respondents expecting tariffs to raise the cost of living, while 21% expect tariffs to create more jobs in the USA.
US Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor