Futu Morning Post | Global asset frenzy! Nasdaq, gold hit record highs, bitcoin nearing historical highs; Cloud business strong growth! Google up nearly 6% after hours.
Da Ma: US stocks have not fully priced in a Trump victory; The "fear index" VIX has turned net long for the first time since 2018; AMD fell more than 7% after-hours, fourth-quarter revenue outlook fell short of analyst's expectations.
US stocks early market | DJT multiple circuit breakers intraday! Trading hot on the donald trump concept; Cryptos concept stocks rallied and then fell back, microstrategy down 0.33%, Coinbase up 0.86%
On the evening of the 29th Beijing time, the U.S. stock market opened with mixed gains and losses. The U.S. Treasury bond yields continued to rise. Investors are preparing for the financial reports of important technology companies such as Alphabet and AMD.
US stock market outlook: Surge over 280% since September low! Trump's campaign ignites DJT; Nomura warns: Trump's trade hedge excessive or may lead to "Harris incident"
Pre-market trading sees most China concept stocks rising, with nio inc and jd.com up over 3%; solar sector trending downwards, daqo new energy dropping over 8%; d.r. horton down over 10% pre-market, 2025 revenue guidance below expectations.
Daily options tracking | Bitcoin breaks through the $70,000 mark! Crypto mining company MARA's call options rise to 80%; Trump Media options trading is hot, multiple call orders make over 2 times profit.
Pre-market on Tuesday local time, the options chain of 'usa version Huabei' Sofi, which is about to release its financial report, has a volume of 0.65 million contracts. This marks a 35% increase from yesterday's volume, making it the third highest volume option from yesterday. The call options accounted for 68% of the total. Among the options expiring this Friday on the options chain, the highest trading volumes were at the $12 and $11.5 strike prices, with 0.048 million contracts and 28,000 contracts respectively.
Did the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, is it not set in stone? Wharton School professor: Whether they cut or not depends on the non-farm payrolls!
①Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School, said that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at next week's monetary policy meeting, which will surprise the market; ② He said that although investors are almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points again in November, if the non-farm payroll report released this Friday is strong, it may overturn these expectations.
Futu Morning Post | Chinese concept stocks lead the US large cap market! The Jinlong index rose by more than 4%; Nomura warns: the market is hedging excessively against Trump trade, may see a 'Harris accident'.
Apple released the iMac with the M4 chip, the first batch of AI features officially implemented; US oil plunged by over 6%, the worst in over two years, Citigroup lowered its oil price target; Bitcoin traders once again look to surpass the $0.07 million mark, with funds flowing into US etf.
Stocks rebound after the election with no fear! Goldman Sachs fund flow expert: We are in the best Q4 trading period in nearly a century.
Goldman Sachs expert Rubner stated that this Monday marks the beginning of the best fourth quarter trading period for US stocks based on data since 1928, as well as the start of the best trading period of the year during election years. The buyback window for the largest US listed companies also resumed on Monday; the median return on investment (ROI) for the s&p 500 index from October 27 to December 31 in election years since 1928 is 6.25%.
US stocks early trading | Donald Trump concept stocks collectively rose, DJT surged 13%, Rumble rose over 6%; Many popular China concept stocks showed strength, Xiaopeng rose over 7%, Nio Inc rose 5%
Apple rose by 0.8%, the Indonesian government recently announced a ban on selling the iPhone 16 series in the country; Boeing fell by 1.67%, and will issue 90 million shares of stocks and 5 billion US dollars in depositary stocks.
US stock market outlook | Super week is coming! Large technology stocks' earnings reports join hands with PCE, 'non-farm' explosive scene; Morgan Stanley: US stocks will continue to dominate the global market in the next ten years.
Royal Philips Q3 sales were below expectations, lowering full-year sales guidance, down nearly 17% pre-market; Bitcoin back above $68,000, cryptos concept stocks rose pre-market.
Options Outlook | Apple's heavyweight financial report is coming! The stock price's one-day post-performance change may approach 4%; Will AMD's profit double? Call options ratio reaches seventy percent.
Meta's current implied volatility is ±8.3%, compared to the previous four quarters, the post-earnings stock price change was approximately 9.9%, indicating that the current options value is still underestimated; as the stock price volatility has historically had a 60% chance of exceeding market expectations, the success rate of using a bullish straddle options strategy during earnings season is about 75%.
Analysis of the 'Fed's Echo Chamber': The hidden dangers of new inflation after the election.
Trump may be heading into a new feud with the Federal Reserve, and any factor that reignites inflation could lead officials to slow down or even halt interest rate cuts.
Futu Express | Fierce Competition! The USA presidential election enters the sprint phase, with a record-high early voting rate; NYSE's heavyweight official announcement! Intends to extend US stock trading hours.
The 14th session of the 12th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing from November 4th to 8th; the apple AI feature Apple Intelligence officially launched this week; How difficult is shorting US stocks? Tesla's short positions, which made money this year, were wiped out in just one day.
BofA's Hartnett: The election will strengthen Wall Street's four core trades, but inflation and economic downturn will reverse everything.
Bank of America analyst Hartnett pointed out that the four core trading strategies on Wall Street now are, bearish on bonds, bullish on gold and technology stocks. Tightening immigration policies may trigger inflation, leading to further increase in gold prices. The market is worried that Fed rate cuts may lead to inflation and overheating of the economy, with bond yields unexpectedly rising after the rate cut, causing US stocks to become more concentrated. Now is not a good time to buy bonds and stocks.
Trump's cabinet: 2.0 Observation Guidelines
Minsheng Securities believes that "actions speak louder than words", which may be particularly prominent in political affairs such as the usa election, requiring special attention to the US Treasury Secretary and trade representative.
One-week lookahead | Heavyweight financial reports coming! Technology giants such as apple, microsoft are unveiling one after another; USA economic data bombardment one after another! Non-farm payroll report finale on Friday.
Multiple countries will announce their GDP for the third quarter, with the USA's economy expected to achieve an annualized growth rate of 3.3% in the third quarter; Bank of Japan interest rate decision: expected to maintain short-term interest rates unchanged, gradually reducing the scale of bond purchases.
Non-farm payrolls and election lead the November resolution, the Fed enters another silent period, will there be a leak this time?
Analysts expect that key data such as the September PCE inflation report and the October employment report will not alter the Fed's decision-making path. Economist Matthew Luzzetti said, "In other circumstances, data might influence their decisions, but this year, officials may not waver... The presidential election will not change the Fed's plan to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on November 7th."
Is it a case of making a cocoon for oneself? Research shows: Trump's tariffs have the biggest impact on the Republican strongholds.
①As the US presidential election approaches, the probability of the Republican presidential candidate Trump winning is increasing, and his radical tariff policy will inevitably impact the US and global economy; ②A recent analysis shows that within the US, the areas most severely affected by Trump's tariff policy are the Republican strongholds, as well as the swing states that may determine the election outcome.
US stocks early trading | The three major indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high intraday; technology stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and cryptos all rising across the board, with Tesla and Nvidia up more than 2%.
On the evening of the 25th Beijing time, the US stock market continued to rise in early trading on Friday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Tesla continued yesterday's upward trend. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slightly declined. The market continues to focus on US stock earnings reports, economic data, the presidential election, and the Fed's interest rate path. US durable goods orders in September fell by 0.8% month-on-month but were better than expected.
US stock market outlook | The three major futures indexes rose slightly, with Chinese concept stocks generally rising; as tesla soared, "Wood Sister" took the opportunity to sell $22 million worth of shares.
Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 1% pre-market, and prices for sub-5nm next year may increase again; Spirit Airlines surged nearly 13% pre-market, planning to sell planes and lay off employees to reduce costs; Apple's smart phone market share in China returned to the top 5! The iPhone 16 is expected to kick off a new upgrade cycle.
Daily options tracking | Achieved the best single-day performance in over 11 years! Tesla's multiple call options earned more than 20 times; trading is hot! SoFi, super micro computer put options volume surged.
Nvidia's options volume yesterday was 2.64 million contracts, with call options accounting for 64.5% of the total. The highest volume was for end-of-day calls with a strike price of $140, reaching 0.23 million contracts, with an open interest of 0.08 million contracts.