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Daily options tracking | Up 14% after hours! Palantir pre-earnings options trading volume increased by 1.2 times; US bond etf call options made a profit of 200%, implied volatility level approaching historical highs before the election.
Nvidia rose by 0.48% yesterday, with its market cap surpassing Apple to become the global number one at one point. A big player bought calls worth 3 million USD; there are 45 million USD in put options on SPY, with big players betting on a drop in the S&P 500 by the end of the year.
Taking history as a mirror: What has been the trend of the US stock market after each major election?
History shows that the stock market in the USA typically rises after presidential elections, but first, it is necessary to prepare for some short-term fluctuations.
U.S. election approaching, traders' positions reversed: net long interest rates turned net short, 'fear index' VIX turned net long.
The hold positions in VIX turned net long for the first time since 2018, but the stock market position remains net long; silver's net long position has risen to an eight-year high; in recent weeks, the US dollar position has shifted from net short to net long.
How does Trump's tariff plan affect the situation? Study: American consumers' purchasing power may evaporate by $78 billion each year.
①A study released on Monday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that if Trump's new import tariff proposal is implemented, American consumers could potentially lose up to $78 billion in purchasing power annually; ② The report states that if import tariffs are implemented, it will further exacerbate the impact on low-income families, tightening their budgets even more.
Will the US stock market hit a new high after the election? Goldman Sachs: FOMO mentality helps, S&P is expected to reach 6100 points by the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley's Chief US Stock Strategist Wilson predicts that the S&P will reach a highest of 6100 points by the end of this year, equivalent to a 6.5% increase compared to last Friday's close. At the same time, he warns that due to the lack of clear catalysts, the enthusiasm of the US stock market may fade as 2025 approaches. He believes that the most favorable outcome for the stock market is Trump's re-election and a divided Congress, as markets favor uncertainty.
Futu Morning Post | Countdown to the election! The panic index VIX is burning high and uncertainty is haunting the market nerves; Up nearly 13% after hours! Palantir raises full-year revenue guidance
Jpmorgan warns: If Trump wins on Wednesday, the Fed may pause the easing cycle as early as December; Will the US stock market hit new highs after the election? Jpmorgan: FOMO psychology boosts, S&P may hit 6100 points by the end of the year; US polls: Harris and Trump are neck and neck in key 'swing states'.