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S&P 500 Index Newsroom
The top institutions have disclosed their Q3 US stock hold positions! They are still heavily invested in technology stocks, but some signs are emerging.
Recently, the 13F reports of institutional investors in the US stock market have been released one after another, becoming an important channel for outsiders to understand the investment trends on Wall Street.
With the election risks dissipated, investors are frantically scooping up risk assets! Is there now no obstacle to the rise of the U.S. stock market?
Options investors are flocking into the US stock market to bet heavily on higher-risk stocks, which has supported the rising trend of US stocks against the backdrop of fading concerns over the election and the expectation that the Republicans will securely hold power in Congress next year.
International Think Tank Warning: "Trump 2.0" will boost the US dollar, causing global market turmoil!
① Researchers at the Chatham House claim that Trump's policies could lead to a rise in the dollar, triggering chaos in global markets; ② The researcher warned that a rising dollar is bad news for the global economy, potentially suppressing global trade and increasing the difficulty of controlling inflation.
All predictions are wrong! The movement of 7 trillion US dollars has caused a significant drop in Wall Street.
Wall Street analysts have previously stated that all the factors, including the Fed's rate cut, resulting in the rise of stocks and bonds markets, are in place, which will prompt investors to withdraw cash on a large scale from money market funds.
The 'Trump trade' of the 2016 version completely reversed afterwards, what about this time?
After Trump's election victory, the US dollar, US stocks, and small cap stocks usually tend to strengthen. However, during Trump 1.0, from 2016 to 2020, the US dollar and small cap stocks performed poorly, failing to rise as expected, while the rise in US stocks was mostly attributable to the strength of technology stocks. Analysis suggests that the 'Trump trade' is not the same as 'Trump investment', it is more of a short-term market reaction rather than a long-term trend.
Be cautious! A new wave of inflation may be on the way.
Greenlight Capital's President David Einhorn expressed that the election results are good for avoiding the political stability issues he was worried about not long ago. However, in terms of the economy, he expects that Trump's second term policies will bring about higher inflation, thus leading to a bigger problem.
Is the feast of the US stock market coming to an end? US economists warn: the three major upward drivers are losing momentum.
The main driving force behind the continued rise in US stocks is nearing exhaustion, indicating that the future return on investment in US stocks will decrease significantly - this is the view of the well-known American economist David Rosenberg. Rosenberg pays special attention to factors such as recent valuations, interest rates, and room for tax cuts, believing that the 'momentum driving the rise in US stocks is almost gone.'
Top economists: The three major driving forces behind the bull market in U.S. stocks are running out.
American economist Rosenberg pointed out that since the most important bullish factors in the US stock market have reached extremes, there may be a period of limited returns in the future.
J.P. Morgan strategists: The year 2025 is full of uncertainties, and the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts!
①jpmorgan market strategist Karen Ward expects the Federal Reserve to pause after the rate cut in December to assess the impact of Trump's policies on the economy. ②Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also stated in his latest speech that the US economy is strong, no need for immediate rate cuts, and will carefully monitor inflation indicators.
Blackrock launches large-cap stock etf in the usa, betting that large companies will continue to dominate the market.
Blackrock has launched an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests in the top 20 large companies in the usa.
Powell's hawkish speech severely undermines interest rate cut expectations, and the global market is facing a "new storm"!
① In his latest speech, Powell stated that with a strong economy, the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates; ② This hawkish statement quickly stirred up a storm in the global markets.
The heat of the 'Trump trade' is still on, but how long can it last?
Stocks, bonds, and other assets are already expensive relative to historical levels. Trump's trade protectionism policy may lead to a resurgence of inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time. In addition, the US economy is facing continuously expanding fiscal deficits and a labor market that is already showing signs of fatigue, which could put pressure on the economic growth outlook.
"Trump trade" remains popular, but how much longer can it last.
Stocks, bonds, and other assets are already expensive relative to historical levels. Trump's trade protectionism policy may lead to a resurgence of inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time. In addition, the US economy is facing continuously expanding fiscal deficits and a labor market that is already showing signs of fatigue, which could put pressure on the economic growth outlook.
Futu Morning Post | Powell 'hawkish': Strong economic performance, no rush to cut interest rates; Buffett's new warehouse received, Domino's surged more than 18% after-hours, Pool rose over 6%
Blackrock bought heavily into Apple in Q3, continuing to increase shareholding in the 'Big Seven'; 'Smart Money' betting on the trend of China: Q3 prototype of 'The Big Short' increased shareholding in Alibaba and other Chinese concept stocks; Disney rose more than 6%, fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations with a $3 billion share buyback plan.
US stock market close | The three major indices all closed lower; electric vehicle stocks suffered heavy losses, with Rivian dropping over 14% and Tesla falling nearly 6%; china concept stocks generally declined, with zeekr falling over 23%.
In October, US PPI accelerated rebound, first-time jobless claims at a nearly six-month low, traders reduced rate cut bets, small cap stocks and Chinese concept indexes fell more than 1%, nvidia rose nearly 2% before turning down, Tesla dropped nearly 6%, zeekr plunged over 23%, jd.com dropped over 6%, Bilibili dropped more than 12%, netease rose more than 10%. The US dollar rose for the fifth consecutive time, the euro hit a one-year low, the Japanese yen fell below 156, offshore RMB briefly fell 200 points to temporarily breach 7.26 yuan. Gold oscillated lower and once fell by 1.4%, US bond yields turned higher, bitcoin fell below $0.088 million, and oil prices rose.
Late night broadcasting! Powell: The economy is strong, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, there is time to understand the impact of Trump's policies.
Powell stated that labor market indicators are returning to more normal levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's full employment target; inflation will continue to decline towards the target of 2%, although there may be occasional fluctuations; the interest rate path is not preset and depends on data and economic outlook. If the data tells us to slow down rate cuts, slowing down is the wise choice; Congress generally believes that the Fed's independence is very important, concluding prematurely on the policies of the Trump administration. The Fed will act cautiously before policy is more certain; the impact of AI may be later and greater than we expect.
Powell Says Fed Will Likely Cut Rates Cautiously Given Persistent Inflation Pressures
Express News | Analysts: The decline of the s&p 500 index risk premium to a 22-year low may not be significant.
U.S. stocks closed: Powell suppressed rate cut expectations, the three major indexes accelerated their decline in the last minutes.
1. China concept stocks were generally down, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index falling by 1.81%; 2. The Trump transition team is planning to cancel the $7,500 tax credit for electric autos; 3. Ford was fined $0.165 billion for failing to comply with recall requests; 4. Blackrock aggressively bought Apple in Q3 and continued to increase its shareholding in the 'Big Seven' companies.
Wall Street Falls as Fed Comments Dampen Rate Cuthopes