Institutions: It is still highly probable that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November.
The US economic and CPI data for August and September have debunked the previous recession trade and excessive rate cut trades. Will there be any changes in the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the future? We believe that two 25 basis point cuts within the year are still the baseline assumption, but we need to pay attention to the possibility that rate cuts next year may not meet expectations.
Behind the record high of the US stock market led by Wall Street financial giants: the "soft landing" becomes more clear.
Although there are signs that the recent inflation rate has worsened in recent years and high interest rates have put pressure on some low-income Americans, usa consumers as a whole still maintained strong consumption momentum in the third quarter.
USA inflation data disrupts market expectations? Federal Reserve officials reiterate: support 'gradual' rate cuts.
On Friday Eastern Time, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated her view that interest rates should slowly move to a more normal level, using a "gradual" rate cut. According to cme Fed watch tool, as of the time of publication, the market expects a 10.5% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in November, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.5%.
The 'miracle' of the US stock market hitting new highs continuously: Wall Street is in a panic but keeps buying non-stop.
①If people take a simple glance at the current market in the USA, what undoubtedly comes into view is a healthy picture; ②The s&p 500 index has just set the 45th new high of the year, csi enterprise bond index still shows no worrisome signs, csi commodity equity index continues to rise under the optimism of the global economy; ③However, upon closer inspection, the outlook will quickly appear slightly dimmer.
The usa market seems to be "very good", but traders are still uneasy.
The market's concern is escalating over the upcoming USA election, the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies, and the recent market volatility.
The Federal Reserve 'easing off the gas pedal' is right! JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's latest discussion on ai, economy, and elections.
In this interview, Damon expressed an optimistic attitude towards the rapid development of technology, especially the potential of artificial intelligence. He emphasized that although technology will impact employment structures, in general, it is a driving force for improving productivity and human well-being.
Express News | The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 95.6%, with a 4.4% probability of not cutting rates.
One article to understand: How will the US presidential election affect the global financial markets?
①Harris will implement targeted tariffs, while Trump tends to adopt more aggressive and destructive policies; ② The risk appetite index of emerging markets is close to the highest point in 15 years, indicating that investors may not have fully considered the downside risks of Trump's tariff policies on emerging market assets.
U.S. stocks closed | The three major indexes collectively rose, with the S&P hitting a new all-time high of 5800 points for the first time; tesla plummeted by 8%, while uber technologies and Lyft strengthened.
Last night and this morning, along with the strong start of the US stock market's third-quarter earnings season this year, the three major indices collectively rose. As the bull market enters its second consecutive year, the S&P 500 index has hit a new high for the 45th time this year and has also reached the significant milestone of 5800 points for the first time in history.
Stay vigilant, Goldman Sachs' top traders say that they will face a "whirlwind of the next month", the USA economy may not "land".
Goldman Sachs hedge fund research head Pasquariello mentioned some key market variables, stating that Goldman Sachs' baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining two meetings this year; hedge funds bought heavily last week after selling off US technology stocks for five consecutive months, and this week they bought even more rapidly, as technology stocks are about to enter earnings season; the tense situation will continue until the results of the US election in November are clear.
Mega-Cap Bank Earnings Help Push S&P 500, Dow to New Record Highs
S&P 500, Dow Rise on Boost From Big Bank Earnings
US stock early trading | Differential trends in the three major indices, Nasdaq slightly down, tesla plummeted by more than 8%; large banks rose across the board, wells fargo & co rose by more than 5%, jpmorgan rose by more than 3%
US stocks opened with mixed gains and losses on Friday. The September PPI index remained flat, indicating mild inflationary pressure and raising market expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. Jpmorgan and wells fargo & co, among other large banks, released their financial reports, marking the beginning of the US stock earnings season.
U.S. stock market outlook: Bank of America's profits exceeded expectations! Analysts raised the target for the S&P 500 index; Are there not enough surprises for Robotaxi? Tesla's pre-market drop exceeds 6%.
Trump Media Technology Group continues to soar in pre-market trading; Morgan Stanley: reiterates nvidia as the preferred choice in the semiconductor field, with strong business and very high visibility of the future.
As the Fed's interest rate cut cycle begins, jpmorgan and wells fargo & co have fired the first shot in the Q3 financial report of bank of america.
On Friday, October 11, JPMorgan and competitor Wells Fargo & Co. released their third-quarter financial reports, while Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will also release reports next week. As the Fed moves into the next phase of achieving a soft landing for the US economy, these reports will provide investors with a fresh perspective on the impact on the largest financial companies in the USA.
Daily options tracking | Tesla plunges nearly 6% in pre-market trading! Large bearish options orders appeared the night before the conference; Trump media soared over 17% overnight, many bullish call options gained more than 3 times.
AMD has launched a new version of AI accelerator MI325X, with a sharp 4% drop in stock price. Options trading volume significantly increased compared to the previous trading day, with the call ratio rising to 70.6%.
Top analysts believe that the U.S. stock market will no longer be able to enter a "rally mode" in 2025. How do they view this?
①The US stock market has been "skyrocketing" all the way this year, making investors jubilant; ②But some top analysts believe that the situation next year is not optimistic, and the ROI will be more moderate.
Is the bull market in US stocks coming to an end? 'Old Bond King': The downward momentum is weakening under multiple headwinds.
Gross did not predict that the bull market was about to collapse, just mentioned that some unfavorable factors are on the horizon, including overvaluation, as well as various macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.
Fed policymakers use 'megaphone' to speak out: Maintaining an open attitude towards no rate cuts in November.
① Atlanta Fed President Bostic reminded the market that if the data supports it, there may only be one interest rate cut in the last two meetings of this year; ② Bostic said: "If the data indicates that it is appropriate, then I can totally accept skipping the next meeting."
Former Fed trader speaks out: Another repo crisis is so "close at hand"!
The entire american financial system once collapsed, and the most famous reverse repo expert broke the silence!