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S&P 500 Index Newsroom
The worst case scenario of the US debt crisis: if Trump orders a default on debt payments!
Nomura and other analysts pointed out that if the United States chooses to default, the credibility of the US dollar will be damaged, which may lead investors to demand higher risk premiums for US bonds, resulting in a sharp increase in government interest payments. Without a large-scale fiscal overhaul, the Federal Reserve loses its monetary policy independence, and the government implements strict financial regulation to try to push real US bond yields into deep negative values to settle federal debt.
Will a big mystery of the US economy be revealed soon? The answer may lie in the non-farm payroll data!
Economists debate: Is the US labor market normalizing, or is it an indication that the economy is about to slow down?
In the next three weeks, the "Trump trade" will be crucial.
JPMorgan stated that if Biden's support rate in swing states falls significantly in the next three weeks, he will face huge pressure to withdraw. If Biden is forced to step down, the preferred replacement is Vice President Kamala Harris.
How does Wall Street predict the strongest global theme for the second half of the year, with expectations of a rate cut, election suspense, and the trend of US stocks?
As the global central bank interest rate cuts arrive, major events such as inflation rebound, the U.S. presidential election, and earnings season tests may all intensify volatility risks, but they also bring many opportunities for positioning.
The US Federal Reserve has been slow to cut interest rates, and the size of the US money market has surpassed 6.15 trillion US dollars, reaching a new high.
In the week ending on the 2nd, there was a inflow of approximately $51.2 billion into the US fund market, the largest inflow in three months. Some analysts pointed out that as long as the Federal Reserve continues to hold steady, funds will continue to flow into currency funds.
Technology stocks are the biggest winners in the first half of the year, how does the US stock market view the future?
In the first half of 2024, the US stock market continued to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.93% and the S&P 500 index far exceeding historical average gains. The Nasdaq index has repeatedly hit new highs and is still leading the US stock market.
The minutes of the June meeting mentioned three times that the Fed really lacks confidence in rate cuts.
Some FOMC members pointed out that if the job vacancy rate drops to 4.5%, it may have already approached or exceeded certain thresholds, meaning that the future unemployment rate will rise more sharply. Most members believe that as the economy gradually cools down, the huge economic pressures faced by low-income households are a major concern for the Fed.
Express News | Reminder: The US stock market will be closed on July 4th for Independence Day.
The US non-farm report for June is about to debut! Has the labor market reached a turning point?
Other economic surveys have shown that the US labor market may be slowing down. Will there be surprises in non-farm payrolls on Friday?
The 'best contra-indicator' for the U.S. stock market has resigned.
JPMorgan's Chief Strategist Marko Kolanovic initially bullish sentiment led to a big drop in the US stock market. However, when he turned bearish, the US stock market rose sharply, making him a perfect "contrarian indicator".
Kaiyuan Macro: AI will drive the US stock market up another 27%, but we need to beware of complacency leading to sorrow!
Kaitu Macro's chief economist pointed out that AI is a bubble that is doomed to burst, but it will continue to expand until then.
Rumors of Biden dropping out this weekend? The market is pricing in this possibility, with the return of "Trump trade".
The global market has begun to quickly adjust investment portfolios in preparation for the "Biden withdrawal" and the return of the "Trump trade", including a strong US dollar, steep US bond curve, as well as the rise of banks, medical and energy stocks.
Beware of Trump! Goldman Sachs: Tariff plan may cause the Fed to raise interest rates five times.
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said that former US President Trump's comprehensive tariff plan may lead to inflation in the country, prompting the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates, with rates expected to rise a cumulative 130 basis points.
Index concentration is too high! Piper Sandler abandons its year-end target prediction for the S&P 500.
The macro research team of Piper Sandler, a Wall Street investment bank, will no longer release a single number forecast for the year-end target of the S&P 500 index, stating that this is an inefficient way to communicate with clients.
'Congressional stock god' takes action! Pelosi purchases call options on Broadcom, 10,000 shares of Nvidia, sells Tesla and Visa.
Analysis shows that if Nvidia continues to perform well in the second half of the year, even if the increase is only half of that in the first half of the year, Pelosi's new purchase of 10,000 shares will bring her about $1 million in profits, which is more than five times her annual salary.
Futu Morning Post | Interest rate cut expectations heat up, S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs again; "Congress Mountain Female Stock God" Pelosi strikes again! Betting on Broadcom and Nvidia.
Fed minutes: Waiting for more information to gain confidence in rate cuts, with the majority of officials believing that the economy is gradually cooling; U.S. June ISM services unexpectedly fell sharply below expectations, with the rate of contraction the fastest in four years.
"Dr. Doom" predicts that if Trump is elected, the US stock market may suffer from a "violent blow" in a trade war!
'Doomsday Doctor' pointed out that a potential trade war would push up import prices, leading to higher inflation.
Express News | The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in August is 91.2%.
Express News | Fed official Goolsbee: More data needs to be seen before interest rate cut.
Prominent "short seller" resigned! Top Wall Street analyst withdrew sadly, insisting on bearish on US stocks for the past year and a half.
On the day before this year's Independence Day in the US, a "thunderbolt" came from Wall Street — the top analyst who persisted in shouting "bearish" during the past year and a half of the US stock market's continuous rise, sadly left his stage.