Week ahead | Powell to attend Congressional hearing! Heavyweight US June CPI to be released on Thursday.
The Q2 earnings season of the US stock market has begun, and JPMorgan and Citigroup will announce their performance on Friday; China will release CPI and PPI data on Wednesday.
How will cooling of the US labor market affect Fed's decision making?
CITIC SEC expects that the Federal Reserve will still lean towards controlling inflation risks, not lowering interest rates during the year, "exchanging time for space," and continuing to suppress demand and inflation in the USA.
Employment Cooling: Has the US labor market weakened?
On July 5th, 2024, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the non-farm employment data for June 2024: the US added 0.206 million non-farm jobs in June 2024, expected to increase by 0.19 million, and the previous value was revised down to 0.218 million; the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.1%, expected to be 4%, and the previous value was 4%.
Goldman Sachs regards the cooling of US non-farm data: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, but don't get too excited about it.
JPMorgan Asset Management's Chief Global Strategist, David Kelly, believes that although the latest non-farm data shows that the US economy is gradually slowing down and the Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice in 2024. However, he is not optimistic about the US stock market because of the high risk of a significant pullback in stock prices.
Biden's self-rescue effect is not good, and the momentum of the Democratic Party's 'palace forcing' continues to strengthen.
According to reports, Virginia Democratic senator Mark Warner is trying to convene a group of Democratic senators next week to discuss Biden's re-election and its possible impact on lower-level elections.
Further Rise in Jobless Rate May Prompt BNP Paribas to Call for Two Rate Cuts in 2024
"Only God can make me drop out!" Biden passionately promises to continue the campaign, but he misspoke again this time.
On Friday, US Eastern Time, Biden stated in an interview that he will continue to run for the presidency, and that he is the best candidate to stop Trump from returning to the White House in November. However, it was a bit awkward that he misspoke during this 22-minute interview. On Monday next week, US Eastern Time, several Democratic congressmen will have a meeting to discuss persuading Biden to drop out of the race.
Nvidia has fallen, and bitcoin has crashed, but the US stock market continues to move forward under heavy pressure.
Bearish analysts have repeatedly misjudged the market and lost their jobs. Some institutions have even abandoned the traditional practice of setting target prices for large caps. The rising price of Mag 7 has pushed the S&P 500's P/E ratio to 26 times, higher than any election year since at least 1990.
Express News | Bank of America: the rise in index driven by giant stocks is a market feature, not a market bug.
Has the US labor market still been "strong"? Media reported that non-farm payrolls data for the first two months were significantly revised downward.
"New American News Agency" stated that although the non-farm data in June is not enough to make the Fed cut interest rates at the July meeting, it is likely to cause a more intense debate on cutting interest rates in September at the July meeting.
"Fed's top three": Although there has been progress in inflation control work, it has not been completed yet.
On Friday, New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech at an event in Mumbai, India, stating that despite recent declines, inflation rates are close to the Fed's target of 2%, and Williams emphasizes policymakers still need to continue efforts to achieve this goal.
Fed Monetary Policy Report: Inflation slows, confidence still needed before rate cuts, closely watching next week's Powell hearing!
The report summarizes the state of the US economy in the first half of this year and the execution of the mmf policy by the Federal Reserve, which is almost consistent with the discussions in previous Federal Reserve meetings.
Top 20 turnover | Tesla has risen for 8 consecutive days, up more than 27% this week, with a total transaction volume of over 38 billion US dollars.
On Friday, Tesla was the top volume trading company in U.S. stocks, rising 2.08% for the eighth consecutive trading day, and the stock price hit a new six-month high with a transaction volume of $38.342 billion. The stock has risen more than 27% this week, wiping out most of its losses this year. Nvidia, ranked 2nd, fell 1.91% with a transaction volume of $27.207 billion. Apple, ranked 3rd, rose 2.16%, with a transaction volume of $13.591 billion.
U.S. stocks closed with the expectation of interest rate cuts boosted by non-farm payrolls, with the S&P and Nasdaq hitting new highs! Tesla rose nearly 38% in eight days, while Nvidia cooled off.
In June, non-farm payroll employment in the USA fell sharply, with significant downward revisions to previous data, and the unexpected rise in unemployment rate highlighted a cooling labor market, leading the market to bet over 70% on rate cuts in September and December.
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF Options Spot-On: On July 5th, 203.16K Contracts Were Traded, With 1.08 Million Open Interest
On July 5th ET, $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 203.16K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 21.25% of the tot
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September? The key data is still yet to come!
After the non-farm data was released, the market priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September. Analysts pointed out that "the key is another round of data".
After a closer look at the US non-farm payrolls report, I was sweating with shock as the data for the first two months was unexpectedly slashed by 0.11 million.
① The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 0.206 million people in June, exceeding the market's expected 0.19 million people; ② The report revised the May data from 0.272 million people to 0.218 million people, and April from 0.165 million people to 0.108 million people.
US stock pre-market: the three major indices have mixed gains and losses, with large tech stocks generally rising, with Tesla, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft all up more than 1%; China concept stocks fell across the board, with Xpeng down nearly 10% and NIO
The US stock market opened flat on Friday, and the three major stock indexes in the US will all record gains this week. The number of new non-farm jobs added in June in the United States fell sharply, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, reinforcing the reason for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Fed's Williams: Progress on Inflation, Job Not Yet Done.
Williams pointed out during his activities in India that he "has confidence" that the Fed is on track to achieve its 2% inflation target.
Express News | US President Biden: Wage growth is faster than inflation, we still have more work to do.