Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September? The key data is still yet to come!
After the non-farm data was released, the market priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September. Analysts pointed out that "the key is another round of data".
After a closer look at the US non-farm payrolls report, I was sweating with shock as the data for the first two months was unexpectedly slashed by 0.11 million.
① The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 0.206 million people in June, exceeding the market's expected 0.19 million people; ② The report revised the May data from 0.272 million people to 0.218 million people, and April from 0.165 million people to 0.108 million people.
US stock pre-market: the three major indices have mixed gains and losses, with large tech stocks generally rising, with Tesla, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft all up more than 1%; China concept stocks fell across the board, with Xpeng down nearly 10% and NIO
The US stock market opened flat on Friday, and the three major stock indexes in the US will all record gains this week. The number of new non-farm jobs added in June in the United States fell sharply, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, reinforcing the reason for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Fed's Williams: Progress on Inflation, Job Not Yet Done.
Williams pointed out during his activities in India that he "has confidence" that the Fed is on track to achieve its 2% inflation target.
Express News | US President Biden: Wage growth is faster than inflation, we still have more work to do.
Express News | US Deputy Secretary of Labor: The unemployment rate is still very low.
Express News | After the non-farm payrolls were released, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in August increased to 95.3%.
Express News | Analysts: The stock market may see today's data as somewhat contradictory.
No hope of US Treasury bond rebound? The market is focused on the election, betting that yields will remain high.
Concerns about the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the increasing government debt burden after Trump's election may limit the rebound of bonds, while the Fed's increasing proximity to interest rate cuts may put pressure on the rise of long-term US debt.
Express News | Fed's Loudspeaker: Unemployment rate shows US economy becoming increasingly close to recession.
Express News | The June non-farm report confirms that the trend of inflation falling back on track.
Express News | US employment growth slows significantly, supporting the prospect of a Fed interest rate cut.
Express News | The US non-farm report shows that the job market still has resilience.
Express News | The slowdown in job growth in the USA provides a reason for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.
Express News | After the release of non-farm payroll data in the USA, traders in interest rates futures expect a slight increase in the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December.
Express News | USA non-farm payroll employment numbers for April and May were revised down by 0.111 million people.
U.S. stock market preview: Heavyweight news! Non-farm data exceeds expectations, and the three major equity index futures jump; Fed "top three": there is still a long way to go to maintain the 2% inflation target.
The US earnings season will kick off next week, putting the US stock market to the test; the increase in US currency supply indicates a reversal of the concentration trend in the US stock market, and mid-small cap stocks may have opportunities; over 1 million chips will be shipped! Nvidia's sales in China are expected to reach $12 billion this year.
Express News | US Jun. Non-Farm Payrolls +206000 Vs +190000 Forecast, Prior +218000; US Jun. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.0% Forecast, Prior 4.0%
Express News | Before the non-farm payroll announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%.
Will tonight's non-farm payroll pave the way for the Fed's rate cut in September?
Some economists believe that the labor market in the USA has not driven inflation upward...