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What kind of outcome will "irrational exuberance" combined with interest rate cuts bring?
As the Federal Reserve prepares to further ease monetary policy against a backdrop of relatively loose financial conditions, the fiscal policy in the USA remains highly expansive. The resulting turmoil in the Bonds market is beginning to extend to the stock market, with the Dow Jones setting a record for its longest consecutive decline in four years last week.
This week's focus for the Federal Reserve: A rate cut in December is a certainty, but uncertainty exists for January.
Due to Doves' remarks by Goolsbee hinting that the possibility of interest rate cuts may slow down in 2025, market expectations for rate cuts have tightened. Morgan Stanley believes that the market's expectations for a rate cut in January next year are relatively cautious because Goolsbee's comments were made before the inflation data was released, and the ongoing slowdown in inflation, especially housing inflation, will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates consecutively in the December and January meetings.
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