TLT241118P85000
- 0.01
- 0.000.00%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Newsroom
U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Expectations of interest rate cuts sharply cooling! Nomura: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will hit the pause button on interest rate cuts in December; Tesla pre-market trading surges nearly 7%! The Trump administratio
nvidia fell more than 2% in pre-market, as the Blackwell chip has a 'heating issue'; super micro computer rose over 10% in pre-market, as the company plans to submit a compliance plan to avoid (delisted) risk.
Daily options tracking | Trump's assistance? Tesla rose more than 8% in pre-market trading, with a large single l bet on the rise last Friday; Palantir hit a new all-time high! Multiple call options made over 9 times profit.
Super micro computer surged over 17% in pre-market today, following reports that the company will submit a compliance plan to avoid (delisted) risk. The stock rose over 3% last Friday, with implied volatility soaring to 219.62%, reaching its highest level of the year, and call options saw a surge in demand, accounting for 44% of the total. On the options chain, among the expiring contracts this Friday, the call with a strike price of $23 had the highest volume, reaching 6,000 contracts.
What signal? Buffett's cash position has been increasing year after year, surprisingly coinciding with the trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Recently, the 'Stock God' Buffett once again 'cleaned out' stocks, which has attracted high market attention. The latest quarterly report shows that Berkshire continues to reduce its stock holdings, with the company's cash reserves reaching a historical high of $325.2 billion, an increase of 17.4% from $276.9 billion at the end of the second quarter.
As US bond yields soar, how much longer can the US stock market party last?
Currently, there are no signs of a bear market in the US stock market, but the surging yields on US Treasury bonds may become a turning point for the situation. Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that when the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5%, investors tend to shift from the stock market to the bond market, limiting the rise of US stocks. This yield has climbed by 80 basis points since mid-September, although the bank indicates that the current interest rate risk is manageable.
Dollar, Treasury Yields Could Correct Lower -- Market Talk
German Bunds, U.S. Treasurys Seek Near-Term Direction -- Market Talk
Will Trump's presidency lead to a resurgence of inflation in the USA? Charles Schwab: Investors should be wary of four major signs.
①Charles Schwab strategists predict that although overall inflation in the USA is cooling down, the downward path will be "volatile"; ②They point out that there are four major signs that may indicate intensifying inflationary pressures in the economy, and investors need to be cautious.
From "Trump frenzy" to concern: The prospect of a "soft landing" for the US economy is being threatened!
① Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz indicated that the usa is experiencing a soft landing, but Trump's policies may end this situation; ② Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that broad imposition of high tariffs could severely impact economic growth; ③ Chief global economist Jennifer McKeown from Capital Economics acknowledged the upward risks of inflation.
With Trump's inauguration approaching in January, Bank of America Merrill Lynch advises investors to adjust their portfolios: focus on US bonds, European and Chinese stock markets, and gold.
Bank of America advises investors to adjust their portfolios before Trump's inauguration in January, focusing on US Treasury bonds, China and Europe stock markets, and gold.
Investors are betting on a rise in US stocks! Analysts warn: the market is dangerously optimistic.
The animal spirits of U.S. stock investors are exceptionally active, but analysts indicate that the "market has become very expensive."
Trump's trade vs. Powell's panic: How will the global market decide this week?
①After the risk assets went crazy following the election, investors in the US stock market finally began to calm down last week; ②Fed Chairman Powell seems to be intentionally slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts, which has cooled the excitement generated by the 'Trump trade'.
Futu Morning Post | Suspense Rising Again? Risk of no rate cut by the Fed in December increases, US bonds erase gains for 2024; Foreign giants are making moves! Chinese concept stocks become new targets for additional investment.
BoA's Hartnett: Investment market turning point before inauguration in January, allocating to US bonds, Chinese and European stock markets, gold; 'Most lethal' US Health Secretary nominee, vaccine stocks plummeting for consecutive days; DJT's major shareholder perfect timing to completely reduce shareholding, missing out on 'sudden fortune and wealth'.
Institutions | The Federal Reserve's rate cuts may enter a "slow lane."
We predict that the new dot plot will show that the number of rate cuts in 2025 will be reduced from the previous 4 times to 2 times, corresponding to a terminal rate of 3.75%-4.0%, which will be consistent with our annual outlook report's determination on the extent of rate cuts.
The risk of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in December is increasing, and U.S. Treasury yields have erased gains for 2024.
Due to traders preparing for the return of Trump and the possibility of the Fed slowing down its rate cuts, the US bond market's nearly two-month downturn has almost erased this year's gains.
Significant reversal! There is a huge uncertainty over whether interest rates will continue to be cut in December.
Although the market had generally expected the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates in 2025, the pace will slow down. Various signs indicate that whether to continue lowering rates in December remains a significant uncertainty.
Bank of America’s Hartnett: The investment market shifted before the inauguration in January, allocating to U.S. treasuries, Central and Eastern European stock markets, and gold.
Hartnett stated that as american financial conditions tighten, investors' expectations for usa growth and inflation increase, leading to a shift in the belief of substantial shareholding in american stocks. It is recommended that investors adjust their investment portfolios before Inauguration Day in January, focusing on chinese and european stock markets as well as gold; if the yield rises to 5%, buy US Treasury bonds.
Treasuries See 2024 Gains Dwindle With December Fed Cut at Risk
One Week Outlook | NVIDIA Faces Financial Report "Big Test"! May Guide the U.S. Stock Market to the Next Direction; Trump 2.0 Continues to Disturb the Market, Key Cabinet Positions Become Market Focus.
Companies such as Xiaomi, pdd holdings, Xiaopeng autos, and Kuaishou will also gradually release their reports.
US National Debts Rise To Historic Record US$36 Trillion
US stocks plummeted, with the Nasdaq 100 giving back much of its gains since the US election results were announced. What happened?
Us stocks plunged, the yen and US Treasury bonds rose, and Trump's trade saw a major reversal. Well-known financial journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the 'New American Fed Communication Agency', wrote that US stocks fell on Friday despite strong retail sales reports released earlier, suggesting that the strong performance of the US economy may not need to be supported in the form of rate cuts. In addition, some Federal Reserve officials have stated that it is too early to determine whether the Fed should cut rates at the next meeting.