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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Newsroom
Morgan Stanley selected the "Top 10 Surprises for 2025": The depreciation of the dollar ranks first.
Morgan Stanley believes that the fiscal deficit in the USA is expected to decrease next year, while the fiscal deficits in China and Germany are likely to increase, which may lead to a convergence of interest rates between the USA and Europe, subsequently triggering a significant depreciation of the dollar. In addition, Morgan Stanley also anticipates a strong recovery in the demand for US Treasury bonds, that the euro is expected to "shine brightly," and that the Bank of England may shorten the interest rate cut cycle.
Beware of hedge fund sell-offs! The Technology bubble in the US stock market is becoming terrifying, and these Sectors may benefit greatly.
Analysts indicate that there was no obvious triggering factor that led to the collapse during the Internet Plus-Related bubble burst in 2000, "except for a few people eventually starting to Sell."
Daily Options Tracking | The "Christmas Market" has arrived as expected! MSTR's Call ratio has surged to 61%, and multiple Tesla Call orders have earned over 5 times; Apple is set to hit 4 trillion dollars, with trading in Call Options heating up.
Bitcoin ETF - IBIT rose over 6% overnight, with an Options Chain Volume of 0.19 million contracts, and Call options accounting for 76%; on the Options Chain, bulls are the market Block Orders, with the highest transaction volume for next year's expiry with a strike price of $55, totaling 8,600 contracts.
Powell's "Christmas gift": U.S. Treasury yields breaking above 4.6%.
Powell's "Christmas gift" this year is a hawkish rate cut. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate cut forecast, suggesting that there will only be two more cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts suggested in September. The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to reach around 4% by the end of next year, which means one to two rate cuts.
The inflation outlook is controversial, and there are three factions within the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve officials seem to have divided into three factions regarding the future interest rate outlook, with which one prevails depending on the degree of inflation slowdown next year.
Interest rate cuts for a hundred days, US Treasury bond "interest rate hikes of a hundred points"! The last time it was worse than this was in 1980...
With the USA stock and bond markets officially entering the Christmas holiday this Wednesday, the US bond market is actually experiencing the overlap of three "100s": ① 100 days of interest rate cuts, ② 100 points of interest rate cuts, and also...
Futu Morning Post | Christmas carnival begins! US stocks closed higher across the board, and Tesla surged more than 7%; OpenAI exploded to consider developing humanoid robots
Large Banks have filed a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve citing a lack of transparency in stress tests; Apple is seeking to defend itself against the billions of dollars paid to Google in the antitrust case regarding search.
High interest rate pressure is becoming evident, with the USA junk bond default rate rising to its highest level in four years.
High interest rates continue to squeeze profits, with the default rate on loans from high-risk Global enterprises (mainly USA companies) climbing to its highest level since 2020, while investor demand remains strong.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On December 24th, 317.47K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.18 Million Open Interest
On December 24th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 317.47K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 35.1% of
US 5-Year Auction High Yield Rises From Previous Month, Demand Lower
Consumer and National Debt Weigh on Otherwise Bullish 2025 Outlook
Treasuries Fall as Long Rates Expand Gap Over Short Maturities
U.S. stocks in the early market | The three major indexes rose, with the Nasdaq up nearly 1%, and Apple and Palantir hitting new highs; Bitcoin returned to $97,000, and the stocks related to Cryptos also rose, with MSTR up nearly 7%.
On the evening of the 24th Beijing time, the US stock market opened slightly higher. Today, the US stock market will close early, and the trading time this week is shortened due to the holiday, with relatively light trading expected during the Christmas period.
This Contrarian Investor Says the Tech Bubble Is Getting Scary. Here's His Game Plan.
US stock outlook | Is the "Christmas rally" for US stocks approaching? Several small-cap companies are surging in pre-market trading, while American Airlines experienced temporary flight cancellations due to technical issues.
News reports that Meta will launch screen-equipped smart glasses, with the earliest release in the second half of next year; Apple's new Global Strategy has been revealed, abandoning car manufacturing to shift to Smart Home.
Daily Options Tracking | AI chip stocks surged collectively yesterday! Multiple Call contracts for Broadcom earned over 3 times, Call ratio for NVIDIA skyrocketed to 72%, and AMD Options trading was vibrant, rising to 0.84 million contracts.
The "meme stock" cannabis giant Tilray Brands closed yesterday up 13.49%, with Options trading surging 4.6 times compared to the previous trading day to 0.34 million contracts, of which Call options accounted for 94.4%, and implied volatility soared to a high of 168%; the most active Call option with a strike price of $2 expiring on January 17, 2025, had a trading volume of over 0.046 million contracts, with an open interest of 0.096 million contracts.
The US stock market faces two headwinds; is it difficult for the rebound to gain a foothold?
Analysts believe that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar need to cool down for U.S. stocks to continue their rebound.
What major trends are implied behind the ten historic numbers of 2024?
From Bitcoin prices breaking 0.1 million dollars, to Musk's exorbitant compensation package, and the record-low fertility rates in Japan and South Korea, each number hides a complex story, reflecting the fluctuations of the Global economy, policy shifts, market turmoil, and leaps in Technology.
The number one theme in the Global market for 2025 is: "Higher and Longer" returns.
The chief economist of Apollo stated that, whether looking at the Federal Reserve's short-term expectations, long-term expectations, or market expectations, the USA interest rate expectations are rising, and the FOMC expects the federal funds rate to remain at the current level through the end of 2026.
The selling of US bonds continues ahead of Christmas Eve! The US market will close early today.
① For Wall Street traders, this week's trade in the USA market will be split into two segments due to the arrival of the Christmas holiday; ② However, at least in the first half of this week, within less than two full trading days, bond bulls in the USA still seem unable to see any signs of easing selling pressure.