Wall Street 'agrees' with the Federal Reserve: predicts that the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield will drop by 50 basis points next year.
According to Zhitong Finance, Wall Street is forecasting that short-term USA Treasury yields will fall by 2025, despite the looming threats posed by the trade and tax policies of incoming President Trump on the Bonds market. Strategists' predictions are largely consistent, believing that the 2-year USA Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed rate policy, will decline. They expect that 12 months from now, rates will fall at least 50 basis points from current levels. The JPMorgan Asset Management team, led by David Kelly, stated in the company's annual outlook: "While investors may be short-sightedly focusing on the speed of interest rate cuts next year and
2024 financial events summary! The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has officially begun, with the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin, and Gold all reaching new highs, and NVIDIA's Market Cap even temporarily topping the Global rankings.
In 2024, with the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years, Global Assets flourish, with Japanese stocks, Gold, US stocks, Bitcoin, and others breaking historical highs one after another. Chinese Assets experienced an epic surge in October.
Futu Daily News | The Federal Reserve FOMC voting committee has a new lineup in the new year! The policy stance is expected to further polarize between dovish and hawkish factions; with the Christmas holiday approaching, Hong Kong stocks open half a day t
The NASDAQ 100 Index has been rebalanced, with the weights of Tesla, Meta, and Broadcom decreasing; competition in wearable devices is intensifying! Meta plans to add a display to its smart glasses; the "Santa Claus rally" is late this year, Analysts say there will still be opportunities after the holidays.
Consumer confidence in the USA has dropped for the first time in three months, as concerns about Trump's tariff increases grow.
① In December, the Consumer Confidence Index in the USA fell to 104.7, below the expected value of 113.2, marking the first decline in three months; ② An increasing number of consumers are mentioning politics and tariffs, with 46% of respondents expecting tariffs to raise the cost of living, while 21% expect tariffs to create more jobs in the USA.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On December 23rd, 420.1K Contracts Were Traded, With 6.3 Million Open Interest
On December 23rd ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 420.1K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 41.85% of
US Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor
U.S. stock market in the morning | All three major Indexes turned to decline, with the Dow down 0.7%; some Growth Tech stocks rose, AMD surged over 4%, Broadcom increased nearly 4%, and Apple hit a new high during the session; the Cryptos Concept stocks c
On the evening of the 23rd in Peking time, US stocks opened mixed on Monday. The market is preparing for a shortened trading week due to holidays, and trading is expected to be relatively light this week.
US Stock Preview | The NASDAQ 100 component adjustments will take effect tonight! Three companies have been included; quantum computing stocks are crazy before the market! QBTS rose more than 20% in the premarket
Broadcom stirs up the AI Chip market again! Multiple major banks raise their Target Price; Robotaxi accelerates deployment, and Tesla rises 3% in pre-market trading.
Annual Review | The 2024 US IPO list is released! The Closed-end Fund DXYZ, heavily invested in SpaceX, has surged nearly 650% this year, with strong performances from the nuclear energy company NNE and the social media newcomer Reddit.
According to the latest data from Dealogic and Nasdaq, as of November 2024, Nasdaq had completed a total of 160 IPO Trades, raising approximately 22 billion USD, while the New York Stock Exchange completed only 34 IPO Trades during the same period, raising nearly 17 billion USD. This data not only sets a new annual high for the past three years but also marks a strong recovery in the USA IPO market.
US Stock Gold Mining | AI applications are accelerating penetration! Palantir surged over 8% last Friday; positive news from new drug trials led Teva Pharmaceutical Industries to accumulate a rise of over 33% last week, and its stock price has doubled wit
Performance and guidance exceeded expectations, with multiple Analysts raising their Target Price! Darden Restaurants, the parent company of Olive Garden, rose over 2% on the previous Trading day, accumulating a gain of more than 12% last week. The Market Cap is firmly above 20 billion USD, and the stock price has reached a new high for the year!
Daily Options Tracking | NVIDIA continues to rebound before the market opens, with Call options rising bullishly to 140 dollars; are they aiming to create a new defense alliance? Last Friday, several Call options for Palantir doubled and profited signific
Broadcom Options volume exceeded 0.85 million contracts, doubling compared to the 30-day average, with Call options accounting for as much as 77%. From the perspective of Options trading volume, bullish sentiment remains quite strong. The call options expiring on January 17 next year, with a strike price of $150, are actively traded, with both volume and open interest exceeding 0.015 million contracts.
Beware! The debt ceiling could be a major "dark thunder" in the market by 2025.
The debt ceiling is back on the negotiation table, and Congress in 2025 is bound to be anything but calm!
Mad Trades in 2024: Soaring Bitcoin, betting on Trump's victory, and a 2900% profit!
Let's take stock of the highs and lows of the market this year, from the victory of Trump's Trade to the collapse of hedge fund bets...
Wall Street 2025 outlook: Where will stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange go from here?
On average, strategists expect a prosperous year for both stocks and bonds next year, with the dollar leading the forex market and strengthening further. Gold remains strong but the increase may slow down, and the outlook for Crude Oil Product appears pessimistic...
Miran was nominated by Trump as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, supporting stronger control over the Federal Reserve and criticizing Yellen for manipulating U.S. debt.
Miran calls for comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve to ensure greater political control over it. At the same time, he accuses Yellen of manipulating the USA government debt market, believing that the Biden administration has effectively implemented an 800 billion dollar quantitative easing.
Between Trump's Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors make their choice?
The formidable adversary of the Trump Trade has emerged: Powell's impact has been felt. After experiencing Powell's hawkish shift, the once-booming Trump Trade is showing signs of fatigue. Between the Trump Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors decide?
The impact of the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts continues, and "higher for longer" has returned to investors' attention.
Federal Reserve officials now predict that the rate cuts in 2025 will be smaller. In the final trading days of this year, the Federal Reserve will re-adopt the "higher for longer" policy stance.
Is a rate cut causing trouble? This may be the "most painful" loosening cycle of the Federal Reserve in decades.
① Many homebuyers in the USA had hoped that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates to make mortgage rates cheaper. However, so far, mortgage rates have significantly increased after the Federal Reserve's "three consecutive rate cuts"; ② In fact, in the eyes of some industry insiders, especially investors in the Bonds market, this may be the most "painful" period of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle in decades...
Institutions: How to expect a rate cut for various Assets?
After the hawkish interest rate cut, trade related to the interest rate cut became the dominant logic temporarily, leading to a breakout of US Treasury yields and the US dollar upwards, while US stocks and Gold experienced a significant decline. However, with the approach of January 20 when Trump takes office, the impact of his policies is bound to "make a comeback". Moreover, it is believed that the current hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not necessarily bad for the US economy and US stocks, and there is no need to swing from the extreme of a "large interest rate cut" in September to the other extreme of "unable to cut rates" now.
Futu Morning Report | Is a sell-off signal emerging? Buffett takes the opportunity to "sweep up" Occidental Petroleum and two other companies; Tesla's latest announcement: the automated driving taxi Robotaxi is accelerating its advancement.
The "Three Witches" day caused huge fluctuations in the US stock market, as shorts covered their positions leading to a sharp rise during the day, but market volatility may continue into next week; several Federal Reserve officials supported a cautious approach to interest rate cuts next year, relying on data, while Powell's "dovish allies" rarely spoke in a hawkish tone.