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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Newsroom
On the first trading day after the holiday, the stock and bond markets in the USA are running steadily. Is the 'Santa Claus rally' expected to continue?
① On the first trading day after Christmas, the USA stock and bond markets operated steadily on Thursday; ② Most major markets in Europe remained closed that day, so trading was still relatively quiet.
Futu Morning Report | Apple hits a new high for four consecutive days! Wedbush raises the Target Price to $325; US Small Cap stocks are booming, with Drone and Quantum Computing concept stocks leading the surge.
The number of initial jobless claims in the USA fell to the lowest level in a month last week, but the duration of unemployment has increased; NVIDIA has launched the GB200 NLV4, and the GB300 is expected to be released in March next year; additional upward momentum? MicroStrategy plans to sell more shares to raise funds for purchasing Bitcoin.
Dow Extends Winning Streak As Treasury Yields Pressure Megacap Stocks
U.S. stock market close | The three major Indexes had mixed performances, with the Dow rising for five consecutive days; Drone Concept stocks surged, with SES jumping 100%; Apple continued to reach new highs, with its Market Cap approaching 4 trillion dol
After the Christmas holiday, trading is quiet. The S&P and Nasdaq briefly turned positive, with Apple reaching a new high and its Market Cap approaching 4 trillion dollars. Tesla fell by 1.8%, NVIDIA's decline narrowed, Broadcom rose over 2%, Drone concept stocks surged, the Chinese concept index rose by 0.9% at one point, Ideal Autos increased by more than 9%, and Kingsoft Cloud rose over 14%.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On December 26th, 307.98K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.24 Million Open Interest
On December 26th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 307.98K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 45.87% of
US10Y Tops 4.6% and Flirts With a 7-month High as Wall Street Heads Into 2025
U.S. stocks in the early market | The three major indices fell but small-cap stocks soared! Quantum Computing concept stock SEALSQ Corp skyrocketed by 30% and was temporarily suspended due to a trading halt; the Drone concept was crazy, with SES AI Corp s
Rumble rose another 20%, having accumulated a rise of over 100% in three trading days; Apple’s stock price reached a high of $260.09 during the day before pulling back, and Wedbush raised Apple’s Target Price to $325.
U.S. Stock Preview | The market focuses on NVIDIA's new products! The "nuclear bomb" RTX5090 and B300 are about to be launched; MSTR issues new Stocks, investing another 42 billion dollars to buy Bitcoin; Pre-Market Trading sees a surge in the Drone Conce
Multiple US auto stocks rose before market open, Toyota Motor increased by over 9%, Tesla rose by 1%; Is it pushing towards a 4 trillion dollar Market Cap tonight? Two major banks raised the Target Price for Apple.
Year-end review of US debt: Will 2024 be full of twists and turns for the "anchor of Global asset pricing"? Will 2025 be wilder than 2023?
The dreaded "term premium" that sends shivers through the financial markets is making a comeback, and the "anchor of Global Asset pricing" is brewing a wave of even wilder growth than the surge of over 5% seen in 2023.
What is the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025? Trump's policies still impose significant uncertainty.
Currently, the Federal Reserve may need to see the impact of the series of economic policies, including import tariffs, proposed by President-elect Donald Trump before it can raise its forecasts for inflation and interest rate changes in the first half of next year.
Can U.S. stocks continue to rise? Research institutions say it depends on the performance of U.S. bonds and the dollar.
Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, pointed out in this week's report that based on recent trading levels, the dollar currently poses only a "slight" resistance to U.S. stocks, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield presents a "moderate" resistance; if the dollar and bond yields continue to rise from now on, it will cause greater trouble for U.S. stocks.
U.S. bonds: The first stab in the back of Trump?
Shao Xiang from Minsheng Macro stated that since his election victory, Trump has been concerned about the U.S. stock market and values the U.S. dollar, but seems to be particularly unconcerned about U.S. Treasury bonds, which could bring significant trouble to both the Trump administration and the market next year. The pressure from maturing U.S. debt next year is considerable (approximately 7.8 trillion U.S. dollars for the whole year), and the already high term premium may worsen the situation, with the Federal Reserve potentially making matters worse.
Futu Morning Report | Powell's "Christmas gift"! U.S. long-term bond yields hit a seven-month high; Hong Kong stocks continue to be closed for the Christmas holiday today, U.S. stocks open.
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 91.4%; the State Council: Expand the areas of special Bonds investment, incorporating low-altitude economy, computing equipment, and supporting infrastructure into the project capital requirements; in 2024, a "wave of resignations" among CEOs of publicly listed companies in the USA will occur.
Famous Analyst warns: the Technology bubble is approaching a "critical point", be wary of large hedge funds selling off.
Kaplan, the CEO of True Contrarian blog and newsletter, believes that the current technology bubble in U.S. stocks has grown larger... the current bear market may have already begun. He also stated that if stocks like QQQ drop by 20%, those funds worth trillions of dollars will sell off at the same time.
Morgan Stanley selected the "Top 10 Surprises for 2025": The depreciation of the dollar ranks first.
Morgan Stanley believes that the fiscal deficit in the USA is expected to decrease next year, while the fiscal deficits in China and Germany are likely to increase, which may lead to a convergence of interest rates between the USA and Europe, subsequently triggering a significant depreciation of the dollar. In addition, Morgan Stanley also anticipates a strong recovery in the demand for US Treasury bonds, that the euro is expected to "shine brightly," and that the Bank of England may shorten the interest rate cut cycle.
Beware of hedge fund sell-offs! The Technology bubble in the US stock market is becoming terrifying, and these Sectors may benefit greatly.
Analysts indicate that there was no obvious triggering factor that led to the collapse during the Internet Plus-Related bubble burst in 2000, "except for a few people eventually starting to Sell."
Daily Options Tracking | The "Christmas Market" has arrived as expected! MSTR's Call ratio has surged to 61%, and multiple Tesla Call orders have earned over 5 times; Apple is set to hit 4 trillion dollars, with trading in Call Options heating up.
Bitcoin ETF - IBIT rose over 6% overnight, with an Options Chain Volume of 0.19 million contracts, and Call options accounting for 76%; on the Options Chain, bulls are the market Block Orders, with the highest transaction volume for next year's expiry with a strike price of $55, totaling 8,600 contracts.
Powell's "Christmas gift": U.S. Treasury yields breaking above 4.6%.
Powell's "Christmas gift" this year is a hawkish rate cut. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate cut forecast, suggesting that there will only be two more cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts suggested in September. The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to reach around 4% by the end of next year, which means one to two rate cuts.
The inflation outlook is controversial, and there are three factions within the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve officials seem to have divided into three factions regarding the future interest rate outlook, with which one prevails depending on the degree of inflation slowdown next year.
Interest rate cuts for a hundred days, US Treasury bond "interest rate hikes of a hundred points"! The last time it was worse than this was in 1980...
With the USA stock and bond markets officially entering the Christmas holiday this Wednesday, the US bond market is actually experiencing the overlap of three "100s": ① 100 days of interest rate cuts, ② 100 points of interest rate cuts, and also...