TLT241227P99000
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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Newsroom
Year-end review of US debt: Will 2024 be full of twists and turns for the "anchor of Global asset pricing"? Will 2025 be wilder than 2023?
The dreaded "term premium" that sends shivers through the financial markets is making a comeback, and the "anchor of Global Asset pricing" is brewing a wave of even wilder growth than the surge of over 5% seen in 2023.
What is the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025? Trump's policies still impose significant uncertainty.
Currently, the Federal Reserve may need to see the impact of the series of economic policies, including import tariffs, proposed by President-elect Donald Trump before it can raise its forecasts for inflation and interest rate changes in the first half of next year.
Can U.S. stocks continue to rise? Research institutions say it depends on the performance of U.S. bonds and the dollar.
Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, pointed out in this week's report that based on recent trading levels, the dollar currently poses only a "slight" resistance to U.S. stocks, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield presents a "moderate" resistance; if the dollar and bond yields continue to rise from now on, it will cause greater trouble for U.S. stocks.
U.S. bonds: The first stab in the back of Trump?
Shao Xiang from Minsheng Macro stated that since his election victory, Trump has been concerned about the U.S. stock market and values the U.S. dollar, but seems to be particularly unconcerned about U.S. Treasury bonds, which could bring significant trouble to both the Trump administration and the market next year. The pressure from maturing U.S. debt next year is considerable (approximately 7.8 trillion U.S. dollars for the whole year), and the already high term premium may worsen the situation, with the Federal Reserve potentially making matters worse.
Futu Morning Report | Powell's "Christmas gift"! U.S. long-term bond yields hit a seven-month high; Hong Kong stocks continue to be closed for the Christmas holiday today, U.S. stocks open.
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 91.4%; the State Council: Expand the areas of special Bonds investment, incorporating low-altitude economy, computing equipment, and supporting infrastructure into the project capital requirements; in 2024, a "wave of resignations" among CEOs of publicly listed companies in the USA will occur.
Famous Analyst warns: the Technology bubble is approaching a "critical point", be wary of large hedge funds selling off.
Kaplan, the CEO of True Contrarian blog and newsletter, believes that the current technology bubble in U.S. stocks has grown larger... the current bear market may have already begun. He also stated that if stocks like QQQ drop by 20%, those funds worth trillions of dollars will sell off at the same time.
Morgan Stanley selected the "Top 10 Surprises for 2025": The depreciation of the dollar ranks first.
Morgan Stanley believes that the fiscal deficit in the USA is expected to decrease next year, while the fiscal deficits in China and Germany are likely to increase, which may lead to a convergence of interest rates between the USA and Europe, subsequently triggering a significant depreciation of the dollar. In addition, Morgan Stanley also anticipates a strong recovery in the demand for US Treasury bonds, that the euro is expected to "shine brightly," and that the Bank of England may shorten the interest rate cut cycle.
Beware of hedge fund sell-offs! The Technology bubble in the US stock market is becoming terrifying, and these Sectors may benefit greatly.
Analysts indicate that there was no obvious triggering factor that led to the collapse during the Internet Plus-Related bubble burst in 2000, "except for a few people eventually starting to Sell."
Daily Options Tracking | The "Christmas Market" has arrived as expected! MSTR's Call ratio has surged to 61%, and multiple Tesla Call orders have earned over 5 times; Apple is set to hit 4 trillion dollars, with trading in Call Options heating up.
Bitcoin ETF - IBIT rose over 6% overnight, with an Options Chain Volume of 0.19 million contracts, and Call options accounting for 76%; on the Options Chain, bulls are the market Block Orders, with the highest transaction volume for next year's expiry with a strike price of $55, totaling 8,600 contracts.
Powell's "Christmas gift": U.S. Treasury yields breaking above 4.6%.
Powell's "Christmas gift" this year is a hawkish rate cut. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate cut forecast, suggesting that there will only be two more cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts suggested in September. The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to reach around 4% by the end of next year, which means one to two rate cuts.
The inflation outlook is controversial, and there are three factions within the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve officials seem to have divided into three factions regarding the future interest rate outlook, with which one prevails depending on the degree of inflation slowdown next year.
Interest rate cuts for a hundred days, US Treasury bond "interest rate hikes of a hundred points"! The last time it was worse than this was in 1980...
With the USA stock and bond markets officially entering the Christmas holiday this Wednesday, the US bond market is actually experiencing the overlap of three "100s": ① 100 days of interest rate cuts, ② 100 points of interest rate cuts, and also...
Futu Morning Post | Christmas carnival begins! US stocks closed higher across the board, and Tesla surged more than 7%; OpenAI exploded to consider developing humanoid robots
Large Banks have filed a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve citing a lack of transparency in stress tests; Apple is seeking to defend itself against the billions of dollars paid to Google in the antitrust case regarding search.
High interest rate pressure is becoming evident, with the USA junk bond default rate rising to its highest level in four years.
High interest rates continue to squeeze profits, with the default rate on loans from high-risk Global enterprises (mainly USA companies) climbing to its highest level since 2020, while investor demand remains strong.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On December 24th, 317.47K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.18 Million Open Interest
On December 24th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 317.47K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 35.1% of
US 5-Year Auction High Yield Rises From Previous Month, Demand Lower
Consumer and National Debt Weigh on Otherwise Bullish 2025 Outlook
Treasuries Fall as Long Rates Expand Gap Over Short Maturities
U.S. stocks in the early market | The three major indexes rose, with the Nasdaq up nearly 1%, and Apple and Palantir hitting new highs; Bitcoin returned to $97,000, and the stocks related to Cryptos also rose, with MSTR up nearly 7%.
On the evening of the 24th Beijing time, the US stock market opened slightly higher. Today, the US stock market will close early, and the trading time this week is shortened due to the holiday, with relatively light trading expected during the Christmas period.
This Contrarian Investor Says the Tech Bubble Is Getting Scary. Here's His Game Plan.