Term Premium on U.S. Treasurys Might Continue to Rise -- Market Talk
The Global bond market is experiencing a frantic sell-off, with US Treasury yields quickly approaching 5%.
The 20-year US Treasury yield has already broken through 5%, while the UK 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield has also risen to 4.82%, reaching a new high since 2008. Inflation worries have prompted traders to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England this year, and at the same time, the market is weighing the impact of President Trump's policies.
The last time the US bonds dropped like this, the US stock market also crashed.
Recently, the rise of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when the stock market experienced a substantial decline. Goldman Sachs stated that although the U.S. stock market is relatively stable now, the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative. If economic data falls short of expectations, the risk of a market correction in the short term may increase.
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Yellen stated that the government spending following the pandemic is necessary, and that high inflation mainly stems from supply chain issues; she is confident that inflation remains on a downward trajectory; the current sell-off of U.S. Bonds is due to the economy being stronger than expected, leading to a repricing of market interest rate expectations, but the term premium has begun to normalize; she hopes the Trump administration will take the deficit seriously and does not wish to see the 'Bond Vigilantes' make a comeback; after leaving her position as Treasury Secretary, she may return to the Brookings Institution.
Continuing with the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, the newly released 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction rate has also reached the highest level since 2007.
On Wednesday, the USA Treasury auctioned 22 billion dollars of 30-year government bonds, with the results similar to the Tuesday auction of 10-year bonds, both receiving winning rates that reached new highs since 2007.
Fed's "hot" committee member Waller: Inflation is declining, supporting further interest rate cuts.
On Wednesday, Fed "super voter" and long-time FOMC voting member, Fed Governor Waller stated that he believes inflation will continue moving towards the central...
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On the evening of the 8th in Peking time, US stocks opened lower on Wednesday. Concerns regarding the interest rate cut path led to a decline in US stocks yesterday, and the market is focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes in December. The December ADP private employment data in the USA was below market expectations. The President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to promote new tariff policies.
Will the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes release tonight continue to signal a "hawkish" stance?
This meeting summary focuses on the level of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the persistence of inflation and the degree of weakness in the labor market, as well as discussions about the neutral interest rate rising to a higher level.
Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to pave the way for the tariff plan.
In 2019, Trump used this trick to threaten Mexico with tariffs, and his advisors were also exploring other legal avenues to support the tariffs.
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The three major Equity Index futures in the USA all dropped, with Nasdaq futures down 0.6%, S&P 500 Index futures down 0.45%, and Dow futures down 0.29%.
The surge in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is causing "pain" in the market, with U.S. stocks facing further downside risk.
As the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches levels that have caused significant pain in the stock market in recent years, there is still room for further declines in the US stock market.
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Is the interest rate cut no longer happening.
The chief economist of Apollo warns: the surge in U.S. bond yields may trigger an "Elizabeth Truss moment."
The chief economist at Apollo stated, "The long periods of high interest rates have many consequences, reminding us of the situation in 2022 when Bonds yields rose and Stocks fell."
The selling of U.S. bonds is accelerating, with 5% just around the corner!
As the day approaches for Trump to officially take office as the president of the USA, concerns in the bond market about the inflation outlook are starting to rise, and Wall Street generally anticipates that US Treasury bonds will continue to decline. On Tuesday, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond hit a 14-month high at 4.919%, nearing the 5% mark; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond climbed to 4.695% on Tuesday, marking the highest level since April of last year.
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