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As US bond yields soar, how much longer can the US stock market party last?
Currently, there are no signs of a bear market in the US stock market, but the surging yields on US Treasury bonds may become a turning point for the situation. Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that when the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5%, investors tend to shift from the stock market to the bond market, limiting the rise of US stocks. This yield has climbed by 80 basis points since mid-September, although the bank indicates that the current interest rate risk is manageable.
6500 points! Wall Street's 'former big short' firmly calls the US stock market, and provides these investment recommendations.
Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson has set a target price of 6,500 points for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, a 10.3% increase from the current level. Wilson believes that the Fed rate cuts, improving economic growth, and potential deregulation by the Trump administration should make investors bullish on the stock market.
The second largest net inflow of capital since 2008! Investors go all in on US stocks
According to EPFR data, in the week up to last Wednesday, US stock etf and mutual funds attracted nearly 56 billion dollars in inflow, marking the second largest weekly inflow record since 2008. These funds have attracted inflow for seven consecutive months, marking the longest duration since 2021.
Investors are betting on a rise in US stocks! Analysts warn: the market is dangerously optimistic.
The animal spirits of U.S. stock investors are exceptionally active, but analysts indicate that the "market has become very expensive."
China International Capital Corporation: Trump 2.0 accelerates economic recovery, with ckh holdings and small cap styles favored.
The recovery of the fundamentals will continue to drive the cyclical sectors such as discretionary consumer goods, capital goods, and raw materials, and before the implementation of Trump's tariffs, it will be bullish for the relevant domestic export sectors (seizing exports).
A new round of trade war dubbed "Trump 2.0" may trigger global economic turmoil! However, Wall Street firmly believes that U.S. stocks will never decline.
Trump's "scorecard" is the s&p 500 index, which is the biggest hope for bullish strength in Wall Street; Strategists generally say that the next USA president will not at least harm the market with economic plans.
Wall Street investment banks consensus: The Federal Reserve will slow down interest rate cuts in 2025.
Several institutions have already started to reduce their bets on the prospect of Fed rate cuts.
"Trump 2.0" crucial treasury secretary dispute, Musk publicly spoke out! Is the support of certain individuals leading to a major sell-off on Wall Street this week?
Wall Street powerful broker Lutnick seems to have lost the opportunity to compete, prompting Musk to openly support stating that Lutnick can "truly bring change," and stating that competitor Bessent will "continue to lead the usa towards bankruptcy." With Lutnick expressing interest in the position of Treasury Secretary, the market has seen selling, seemingly indicating to Trump that Bessent is more suitable.
U.S. stocks have plummeted significantly; what has stifled the "Trump trade"?
With the political outlook in the USA no longer as certain as the market expected a few weeks ago, and inflation still relatively high, investors have no safety margin to seek.
Weekend Reading | Fireside chat with top investor Greenblatt, about index investing, the seven giants, and long-short strategies...
Find a good company, make sure the price is reasonable when buying, it will appreciate over time.
Tidewater Midstream Analyst Ratings
Be cautious! A new wave of inflation may be on the way.
Greenlight Capital's President David Einhorn expressed that the election results are good for avoiding the political stability issues he was worried about not long ago. However, in terms of the economy, he expects that Trump's second term policies will bring about higher inflation, thus leading to a bigger problem.
Top economists: The three major driving forces behind the bull market in U.S. stocks are running out.
American economist Rosenberg pointed out that since the most important bullish factors in the US stock market have reached extremes, there may be a period of limited returns in the future.
Late night broadcasting! Powell: The economy is strong, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, there is time to understand the impact of Trump's policies.
Powell stated that labor market indicators are returning to more normal levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's full employment target; inflation will continue to decline towards the target of 2%, although there may be occasional fluctuations; the interest rate path is not preset and depends on data and economic outlook. If the data tells us to slow down rate cuts, slowing down is the wise choice; Congress generally believes that the Fed's independence is very important, concluding prematurely on the policies of the Trump administration. The Fed will act cautiously before policy is more certain; the impact of AI may be later and greater than we expect.
Is it time to cool down the 'Trump trade'? Hedge fund big shots: US stocks won't skyrocket!
① Nielsen Peltz, the CEO of the hedge fund company Trian Partners and billionaire investor, is confident about the incoming Trump administration; however, he believes that the stock market rebound will not last. ② Peltz stated in an interview on Wednesday that investors are caught up in speculation and the market will gradually cool down.
Is it stable? The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month has reached 80%.
① Last night, the completely market-expected usa October CPI data did not cause much of a stir in the market; ② However, the data performance still boosted market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut next month, and stimulated a rebound in short-term US government bonds.
The Republican Party won a majority of seats in the House, but the slim advantage brings challenges.
House Republicans are expected to win a majority of seats in the next Congress, giving them unified control that allows Trump to have more say in budget and tax battles. However, given that the Republican majority is expected to be narrow and internal consensus may be difficult to achieve, this could hinder their efforts to advance Trump's agenda.
Is the continued interest rate cut stable in December? Federal Reserve officials say inflation is moving in the right direction.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed confidence in the inflation heading in the right direction just minutes after the CPI was released, stating that it will take six weeks to analyze the data. Dallas Fed President Kaplan said that more rate cuts may be needed in the future, but it is best to act cautiously, as there are risks of inflation due to demand and geopolitical factors. Comments suggest she prefers to slow down rate cuts sooner rather than later. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that if inflation continues to decline, rate cuts should be gradual and monetary policy should remain 'slightly restrictive.' Kansas City Fed President George said it is uncertain how much the rate cuts will be in the future.
USA Stock Market Preview | All three equity index futures fell together, with the US October CPI released tonight.
On November 13th (Wednesday) pre-market trading, the three major US equity index futures all fell.
The election market takes a breather, will 're-inflation' take over? The next two major events may determine the trend of the US stock market.
As the first major post-election data in the USA, the US October CPI report, to be released at 21:30 on Wednesday evening Beijing time, is clearly expected to have a crucial impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve; In addition, Nvidia will release its third-quarter performance on November 20th Eastern Time, and the company is considered to be an absolute key factor affecting the overall future trend of US technology stocks and AI concepts.