Huaxi Securities: The pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts may accelerate.
The expected number of interest rate cuts for derivatives within the year is 4.5 times (25 basis points each time), and the number of interest rate cuts before June next year is 9 times. This aggressive interest rate cut expectation may help achieve the effect of early interest rate cuts, which is possibly something the current Federal Reserve would be happy to see.
GF Securities: Maintains the judgement that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September, with about 2 cuts throughout the year, each time by 25 basis points.
The next important milestone is the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on September 17-18. It is worth observing whether there will be a round of policy resonance cycle in non-US markets if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is realized as expected.
Analysis of US employment data in August: Non-farm data did not strengthen the need for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September.
The details of the August US non-farm data are mixed, overall indicating a continued cooling of the labor market but with a slower pace, and no need to reinforce the necessity of a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
Global currency market weekly review: the dollar rises, market shaken by Fed rate cut expectations.
This week, the global foreign exchange market has been experiencing frequent fluctuations, and investors are focusing on the US employment data for August and the meeting scheduled by the Federal Reserve on September 17-18. Despite the Federal Reserve's hint of a possible interest rate cut, the August non-farm employment report in the United States performed poorly, failing to provide clear guidance. This has led to significant divergences in the expected magnitude of the interest rate cut in the market, and has also had a significant impact on the trends of major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, and yen.
Federal Reserve Director Woller's 'dovish' voice is loud, with an open attitude towards significant interest rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Board Director Woller said on Friday that he supports a rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting.
Non-farm data 'stirring up' the game, Summers: The Fed's interest rate cut drama is more suspenseful...
① Summers recently stated that although the employment report in August was not particularly bad, it did make it more difficult to predict the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut this month; ② Summers said that the likelihood of a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut has become more comparable to a couple of months ago.