The "Federal Reserve's mouthpiece": The USA economy may face a hard landing!

Under the "bold experiment" of the Trump administration, the USA economy may be heading towards a hard landing, while the Federal Reserve's actions might be slower. Experts are concerned that the speed of MMF policy response may not be sufficient to break the potential negative feedback loop.

Golden10 Data16minutes ago

Weak non-farm payrolls caused the dollar to decline. Economic data will guide market direction.

In summary, last week, the dollar fell sharply by 3.4% on a weekly basis, returning to the levels seen in early November 2024. The non-farm payroll report released on Friday showed data that was below expectations, causing the dollar to experience significant fluctuations before closing at a relatively low point.

CME Group12:13

If the recession becomes a reality, the Federal Reserve may be forced to make an emergency rate cut in June.

Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will quickly cut interest rates during an economic downturn, with an increasing number of people in the Futures market expecting continuous rate cuts in June, July, and October, while Federal Reserve officials face a dilemma of rising inflation and a weak economy.

Golden10 Data11:39

Economists: The probability of a recession in the USA is expected to increase to 25% to 30%.

On March 11, Glonghui reported that Mohamed El-Erian, who once served as the CEO of the bond fund management giant PIMCO and currently is the Dean of Queens' College at Cambridge University, remarked that the USA economy has shown signs of slowing down, but he estimates that economic growth will remain in the range of 1.5% to 2% this year. However, if the annual growth rate of the USA economy falls below 1%, it would significantly undermine President Trump's policy goals. Earlier, the USA announced that last year's economic growth rate was 2.3%. Nevertheless, given Trump's implementation of tariff measures, analysts have gradually lowered their forecasts for the growth of the USA economy this year.

Gelonghui Finance09:37

Concerns about a recession in the USA are increasing, and most safe-haven Assets are rising.

On March 11, Gelonghui reported that due to increasing concerns about a recession in the USA, most safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries and the Japanese yen rose in early Asian trading. Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at National Australia Bank Limited Sponsored ADR, said, "Headlines about rising recession risks (from low levels) are everywhere. It is not surprising that US Treasury yields are dropping." The market's pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts has risen, with a projected reduction of 81.6 basis points by the end of 2025, up from 70.7 basis points last Friday.

Gelonghui Finance09:19

Lowering the GDP forecast for the USA and raising the inflation forecast, even the "optimists" at Goldman Sachs are now seeing "stagflation."

Due to concerns over tariff policies, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the USA in 2025 from 2.4% to 1.7%, and raised the 2025 core PCE price index to 3%. It is expected that the average tariff rate in the USA will rise by 10 percentage points this year, five times the level during Trump's first term in office. Platform data shows that the market currently estimates a 40% chance of an official announcement of economic recession in the USA by the end of this year.

wallstreetcn08:27