Options Outlook | Apple's heavyweight financial report is coming! The stock price's one-day post-performance change may approach 4%; Will AMD's profit double? Call options ratio reaches seventy percent.
Meta's current implied volatility is ±8.3%, compared to the previous four quarters, the post-earnings stock price change was approximately 9.9%, indicating that the current options value is still underestimated; as the stock price volatility has historically had a 60% chance of exceeding market expectations, the success rate of using a bullish straddle options strategy during earnings season is about 75%.
Buckle up! The next 10 days are crucial to the global market.
Mag7 financial report, US bond refinancing, non-farm, US election, Federal Reserve decision... These heavyweight events will be successively staged in the next 10 days, analysts warn to prepare for potential severe volatility.
Analysis of the 'Fed's Echo Chamber': The hidden dangers of new inflation after the election.
Trump may be heading into a new feud with the Federal Reserve, and any factor that reignites inflation could lead officials to slow down or even halt interest rate cuts.
What will happen if Trump wins the election? Goldman Sachs: Tariffs may be the first to be implemented.
According to Daiwa, once Trump comes to power, tariff reform is likely to take the lead in fiscal policy, immigration control, and tariffs.
Large amount of data, large number of events! Investors must fasten their seat belts in the next two weeks.
Critical test is coming! Whether you are a trader focusing more on macro or micro levels, you need to be prepared for the next two weeks.
Futu Express | Fierce Competition! The USA presidential election enters the sprint phase, with a record-high early voting rate; NYSE's heavyweight official announcement! Intends to extend US stock trading hours.
The 14th session of the 12th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing from November 4th to 8th; the apple AI feature Apple Intelligence officially launched this week; How difficult is shorting US stocks? Tesla's short positions, which made money this year, were wiped out in just one day.
BofA's Hartnett: The election will strengthen Wall Street's four core trades, but inflation and economic downturn will reverse everything.
Bank of America analyst Hartnett pointed out that the four core trading strategies on Wall Street now are, bearish on bonds, bullish on gold and technology stocks. Tightening immigration policies may trigger inflation, leading to further increase in gold prices. The market is worried that Fed rate cuts may lead to inflation and overheating of the economy, with bond yields unexpectedly rising after the rate cut, causing US stocks to become more concentrated. Now is not a good time to buy bonds and stocks.
Trump's cabinet: 2.0 Observation Guidelines
Minsheng Securities believes that "actions speak louder than words", which may be particularly prominent in political affairs such as the usa election, requiring special attention to the US Treasury Secretary and trade representative.
One-week lookahead | Heavyweight financial reports coming! Technology giants such as apple, microsoft are unveiling one after another; USA economic data bombardment one after another! Non-farm payroll report finale on Friday.
Multiple countries will announce their GDP for the third quarter, with the USA's economy expected to achieve an annualized growth rate of 3.3% in the third quarter; Bank of Japan interest rate decision: expected to maintain short-term interest rates unchanged, gradually reducing the scale of bond purchases.
Non-farm payrolls and election lead the November resolution, the Fed enters another silent period, will there be a leak this time?
Analysts expect that key data such as the September PCE inflation report and the October employment report will not alter the Fed's decision-making path. Economist Matthew Luzzetti said, "In other circumstances, data might influence their decisions, but this year, officials may not waver... The presidential election will not change the Fed's plan to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on November 7th."
Is it a case of making a cocoon for oneself? Research shows: Trump's tariffs have the biggest impact on the Republican strongholds.
①As the US presidential election approaches, the probability of the Republican presidential candidate Trump winning is increasing, and his radical tariff policy will inevitably impact the US and global economy; ②A recent analysis shows that within the US, the areas most severely affected by Trump's tariff policy are the Republican strongholds, as well as the swing states that may determine the election outcome.
The sell-off of US Treasury bonds is impacting global markets! Will the market shift from overvaluation to undervaluation with the Fed cutting interest rates?
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, traders originally expected at least another 25 basis point cut this year. However, current trading in the swap market indicates a significantly increased possibility that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in the remaining two meetings this year. Analysts indicate that investors have shifted from overestimating rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to underestimating them, and "the pendulum has swung in the other direction".
A week of soaring US bond yields, with every market hedging, but US stocks held firm.
This week, US bonds were sold off, with yields rising across the board, however, the US stock market showed resilience. Analysis indicates that the main driving factors for stock market returns remain ample liquidity, loose policies, as well as good economic and earnings growth. The rise in bond yields may not necessarily have a negative impact on the stock market rebound.
Major changes may be coming to the US stock market! NYSE plans to extend trading hours, how significant will the impact be?
Wall Street analysts say that extending trading hours may mean financial companies need to strengthen trading during the early morning and evening. Prices may fluctuate more during extended trading hours, providing traders with opportunities to take advantage of these trades.
US stocks early trading | The three major indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high intraday; technology stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and cryptos all rising across the board, with Tesla and Nvidia up more than 2%.
On the evening of the 25th Beijing time, the US stock market continued to rise in early trading on Friday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Tesla continued yesterday's upward trend. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slightly declined. The market continues to focus on US stock earnings reports, economic data, the presidential election, and the Fed's interest rate path. US durable goods orders in September fell by 0.8% month-on-month but were better than expected.
The usa election has entered the final sprint stage, and the market is on high alert! Will these sectors benefit regardless of who wins?
In this scenario, traders are also starting to flock to defensive sectors to hedge against volatility. Regardless of Trump or Harris winning, these stocks may deliver decent performance and serve as a 'safe haven' for election trading.
US stock market outlook | The three major futures indexes rose slightly, with Chinese concept stocks generally rising; as tesla soared, "Wood Sister" took the opportunity to sell $22 million worth of shares.
Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 1% pre-market, and prices for sub-5nm next year may increase again; Spirit Airlines surged nearly 13% pre-market, planning to sell planes and lay off employees to reduce costs; Apple's smart phone market share in China returned to the top 5! The iPhone 16 is expected to kick off a new upgrade cycle.
Daily options tracking | Achieved the best single-day performance in over 11 years! Tesla's multiple call options earned more than 20 times; trading is hot! SoFi, super micro computer put options volume surged.
Nvidia's options volume yesterday was 2.64 million contracts, with call options accounting for 64.5% of the total. The highest volume was for end-of-day calls with a strike price of $140, reaching 0.23 million contracts, with an open interest of 0.08 million contracts.
gtja: Why is the US dollar rising?
The resilience of the US economy is an important factor in maintaining the strength of the US dollar, and the Citi Economic Surprise Index reflects recent US economic data improving beyond expectations.
Warning bells ring before the election! usa 1-year sovereign CDS rises to near one-year high.
①On Thursday, although the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen from a three-month high, the cautious atmosphere in the US bond market is still strong; ②Due to the economic policies of both presidential candidates potentially leading to a further expansion of the US fiscal deficit and increasing the burden of sovereign debt, the US 1-year sovereign CDS has now risen to its highest level in nearly a year.