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Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Newsroom
Year-end review of US debt: Will 2024 be full of twists and turns for the "anchor of Global asset pricing"? Will 2025 be wilder than 2023?
The dreaded "term premium" that sends shivers through the financial markets is making a comeback, and the "anchor of Global Asset pricing" is brewing a wave of even wilder growth than the surge of over 5% seen in 2023.
Can U.S. stocks continue to rise? Research institutions say it depends on the performance of U.S. bonds and the dollar.
Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, pointed out in this week's report that based on recent trading levels, the dollar currently poses only a "slight" resistance to U.S. stocks, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield presents a "moderate" resistance; if the dollar and bond yields continue to rise from now on, it will cause greater trouble for U.S. stocks.
Morgan Stanley selected the "Top 10 Surprises for 2025": The depreciation of the dollar ranks first.
Morgan Stanley believes that the fiscal deficit in the USA is expected to decrease next year, while the fiscal deficits in China and Germany are likely to increase, which may lead to a convergence of interest rates between the USA and Europe, subsequently triggering a significant depreciation of the dollar. In addition, Morgan Stanley also anticipates a strong recovery in the demand for US Treasury bonds, that the euro is expected to "shine brightly," and that the Bank of England may shorten the interest rate cut cycle.
Powell's "Christmas gift": U.S. Treasury yields breaking above 4.6%.
Powell's "Christmas gift" this year is a hawkish rate cut. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate cut forecast, suggesting that there will only be two more cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts suggested in September. The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to reach around 4% by the end of next year, which means one to two rate cuts.
The inflation outlook is controversial, and there are three factions within the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve officials seem to have divided into three factions regarding the future interest rate outlook, with which one prevails depending on the degree of inflation slowdown next year.
Interest rate cuts for a hundred days, US Treasury bond "interest rate hikes of a hundred points"! The last time it was worse than this was in 1980...
With the USA stock and bond markets officially entering the Christmas holiday this Wednesday, the US bond market is actually experiencing the overlap of three "100s": ① 100 days of interest rate cuts, ② 100 points of interest rate cuts, and also...
US 5-Year Auction High Yield Rises From Previous Month, Demand Lower
Consumer and National Debt Weigh on Otherwise Bullish 2025 Outlook
Treasuries Fall as Long Rates Expand Gap Over Short Maturities
The US stock market faces two headwinds; is it difficult for the rebound to gain a foothold?
Analysts believe that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar need to cool down for U.S. stocks to continue their rebound.
The selling of US bonds continues ahead of Christmas Eve! The US market will close early today.
① For Wall Street traders, this week's trade in the USA market will be split into two segments due to the arrival of the Christmas holiday; ② However, at least in the first half of this week, within less than two full trading days, bond bulls in the USA still seem unable to see any signs of easing selling pressure.
Chief Economist of Allianz: The Federal Reserve's repeated 'flip-flopping' will endanger the USA exceptionalism.
Erian believes that the Federal Reserve is being led by data, and its highly passive decision-making approach in recent years has amplified financial volatility.
US Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor
Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of Consumer Sentiment Data -- Market Talk
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Declares $0.2006 Dividend
Beware! The debt ceiling could be a major "dark thunder" in the market by 2025.
The debt ceiling is back on the negotiation table, and Congress in 2025 is bound to be anything but calm!
Mad Trades in 2024: Soaring Bitcoin, betting on Trump's victory, and a 2900% profit!
Let's take stock of the highs and lows of the market this year, from the victory of Trump's Trade to the collapse of hedge fund bets...
Wall Street 2025 outlook: Where will stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange go from here?
On average, strategists expect a prosperous year for both stocks and bonds next year, with the dollar leading the forex market and strengthening further. Gold remains strong but the increase may slow down, and the outlook for Crude Oil Product appears pessimistic...
Between Trump's Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors make their choice?
The formidable adversary of the Trump Trade has emerged: Powell's impact has been felt. After experiencing Powell's hawkish shift, the once-booming Trump Trade is showing signs of fatigue. Between the Trump Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors decide?
Bond Traders Turn to 2025 Amid Most Agonizing Easing in Decades