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Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Newsroom
What kind of outcome will "irrational exuberance" combined with interest rate cuts bring?
As the Federal Reserve prepares to further ease monetary policy against a backdrop of relatively loose financial conditions, the fiscal policy in the USA remains highly expansive. The resulting turmoil in the Bonds market is beginning to extend to the stock market, with the Dow Jones setting a record for its longest consecutive decline in four years last week.
China Galaxy Securities: Inflation does not hinder the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in December, and there is still room for decline in 2025.
Currently, predictions suggest that the pressure from tariffs on inflation may be limited by 2025, and the risk of the CPI growth exceeding 3% in 2025 severely restricting the loosening of MMF policy may not be significant.
The Nasdaq fell to 0.02 million points, Adobe plummeted more than 13%, the China concept Index rose against the trend, and Bitcoin dropped below 0.1 million dollars.
In November, USA PPI inflation exceeded expectations, with the market betting on a pause in interest rate cuts in January next year. The Dow has fallen for six consecutive days, with NVIDIA experiencing the largest drop of 2.5%. Tesla, Meta, Google, and Amazon have moved away from their highs, uranium mining stocks have declined, but Apple reached a new high. Broadcom rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading, and Chinese stocks Baidu and PDD Holdings increased by over 1%. Bond yields in Europe and the USA have risen significantly, and after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, the euro fell to a one-week low, before rebounding. The dollar reached a two-week high, while the offshore yuan once rose over 200 points, breaking through 7.26 yuan. Commodities generally fell, with spot gold down over 2% and spot silver down over 4% during the session.
The Bonds market has fallen into a "guessing game": what is the Federal Reserve's interest rate anchor?
Due to the diversity in estimating the neutral interest rate, the market has a wide range of opinions regarding the outlook of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the bond market often experiences sharp fluctuations after each release of economic data. When this month's non-farm payroll report was released, the volatility of the two-year US Treasury yield was on average six times larger than before 2022.
The Nasdaq is at 20,000 points! Besides US Treasury bonds, American investors are Buying everything.
After the release of USA's November CPI data on Wednesday, investors seem to have finally "confirmed" that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week is a done deal; financial markets across asset classes on Wednesday also appeared quite uplifting; apart from the decline in USA Treasuries, investors are buying everything else - USA stocks are rising, Gold is rising, the dollar is rising, Crude Oil Product is rising, and Cryptos are rising...
US inflation remains strong, US bond yields rise slightly
U.S. Treasuries failed to maintain the upward trend stimulated by moderate inflation data.
Wall Street interprets CPI: Without changing the “gradual easing” of the Federal Reserve, strong core inflation supports the suspension of interest rate cuts in January
Analysis suggests that the CPI, which meets expectations, demonstrates that the cooling of inflation has basically stagnated in recent months. While this is not enough to disrupt the year-end bull market in U.S. stocks, it also means that an interest rate cut next week is not guaranteed, especially with the potential inflation upward risks brought by Trump's tariffs and fiscal expansion next year drawing attention. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries first fell and then rose.
Treasury Yields Rise as CPI Keeps Fed Cut on the Table -- Market Talk
Treasury Yields Recover as Fed Is Expected to Cut, Then Pause -- Market Talk
Tonight! The last piece of potentially market-exploding data from the USA in 2024 is here.
① The USA's November CPI data, which will be released tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, can be metaphorically described as "the last heavyweight economic Indicator of the USA for 2024", which does not seem exaggerated. ② With the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week, tonight's CPI is expected to serve as an important basis for the Fed's critical decision on whether or not to cut interest rates...
Imminent! A giant has once again issued a warning to the governments of Europe and the United States regarding debt, this time it is the central bank of central banks!
This week, major players intensively warned about the debt issues in Europe and the United States. Following bond giant Pimco and Bridgewater's Dalio, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), known as the central bank of central banks, recently stated that government borrowing habits pose the greatest danger to Global economic stability. The surge in government debt supply could exacerbate instability in financial markets, and the recent changes in market sentiment should be viewed as warning signals.
Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of November's Consumer Price Index -- Market Talk
When the US stock market has a fondness for Trump, the US debt has fallen in love with Bensent...
① The usa national debt market, which has reached a scale of 28 trillion dollars, seems to be becoming increasingly "politicized"; ② If the continuous record highs of the us stock market after the usa elections indicate that the bull market is "fond of" Trump, then the current bond market seems to have "fallen in love with" Bessent.
Worried about the worsening deficit situation in the usa, PIMCO has reduced its allocation to long-term us treasury bonds.
Pimco recently stated that it has reduced its allocation to long-term usa Treasury bonds due to the possibility of worsening deficits in the usa.
Bonds and gold make a strong comeback! Schroders' investment analysis on how to cope with the challenges of a highly valued stock market.
Schroder Investment believes that the investment market will have the conditions to achieve good returns in 2025, but the challenges it faces should not be underestimated. In this environment, adopting a diversified investment strategy across regions and asset classes will be a key factor in enhancing portfolio resilience and addressing future market uncertainties.
Global Stocks Rise to Record on Powell, Bonds Gain
Allianz Investment: The Fed starts a rate cut cycle, and short-term high yield bonds in the USA can provide stable returns for investors.
Chen Jiaying said that short-term high yield bonds in the usa can provide investors with an attractive option. The main reason is that the coupon yield of short-term high yield bonds is higher than that of high-rated bonds, with relatively lower volatility.
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Expected to Steepen -- Market Talk
The usa Treasury market is poised for action, with traders betting that yields will continue to decline.
Bond traders are actively preparing for the new round of rise in the US Treasury market, expecting the yield to continue to fall from the peak after Donald Trump's election victory.
10-year Treasury Yield Edges Higher as Investors Await Economic Data, Fed Speeches