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Powell's "Christmas gift": U.S. Treasury yields breaking above 4.6%.
Powell's "Christmas gift" this year is a hawkish rate cut. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate cut forecast, suggesting that there will only be two more cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts suggested in September. The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to reach around 4% by the end of next year, which means one to two rate cuts.
The inflation outlook is controversial, and there are three factions within the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve officials seem to have divided into three factions regarding the future interest rate outlook, with which one prevails depending on the degree of inflation slowdown next year.
Interest rate cuts for a hundred days, US Treasury bond "interest rate hikes of a hundred points"! The last time it was worse than this was in 1980...
With the USA stock and bond markets officially entering the Christmas holiday this Wednesday, the US bond market is actually experiencing the overlap of three "100s": ① 100 days of interest rate cuts, ② 100 points of interest rate cuts, and also...
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