VIX250219P16000
- 0.55
- -0.04-6.78%
CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index Newsroom
Changes are coming! U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed 5%, and the $18 trillion rise in U.S. stocks is facing a tough battle?
Market professionals warn that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5%, a "knee-jerk" sell-off will occur in the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500 Index may drop by 10%.
CPI data may affect interest rate cut expectations, and data next week needs to be closely monitored.
Pay attention to the risks that may arise from short-term market fluctuations.
Trump's 'economic strategist' advocates for raising tariffs to 20%-50%, abandoning a strong dollar, and forcing the Federal Reserve into quantitative easing.
Stephen Miran, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers nominated by Trump, put forward his economic theory. He advocates for high tariffs, a weak dollar, and Federal Reserve quantitative easing.
Goldman Sachs Now Expects Two Fed Rate Cuts This Year, Down From Three
US Stock Futures Steady With Earnings, Inflation in Focus
Weekly Outlook | Key data such as CPI and PPI from the USA will be released, which may continue to bring volatility to the market; the Q4 Earnings Reports season for US stocks officially begins, with large bank stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor among those
China will announce the GDP growth rate for the entire year of 2024, the year-on-year GDP for the fourth quarter, the total GDP for the year 2024, the year-on-year retail sales of consumer goods for December, and the year-on-year added value of industrial enterprises above designated size for December.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path has changed! Wall Street is beginning to discuss whether to pause rate cuts or not cut at all.
A "surprising" non-farm payroll report caused a sudden change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path.
Will there be a major turnaround? Wall Street's two major investment banks are focusing on "the end of January to February."
Bank of America believes that the decline in the US stock market will force the Trump administration to make concessions on tariffs, and February or March will be a good time to start investing in US bonds and the stock markets of China, the United Kingdom, and Emerging Markets. JPMorgan stated that as Trump's policy towards China and China's responses become clearer, the Chinese stock market is expected to see a reversal around the end of January.
The U.S. stock market has "returned to the state before the election overnight". What comes next?
Some Analysts are concerned that US Treasury yields may continue to soar. On the other hand, inflation in the USA exceeding expectations might lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts or even raise rates, further impacting the US stock market.
What will happen on the first day of Trump's presidency?
Over the weekend, multiple significant pieces of news about Trump were reported!
Has the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle possibly ended.
In December, the non-farm payroll employment in the USA exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was also lower than expected. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" commented that the employment report shuts the door on a rate cut in January.
Liquidity "stress test": When will the Federal Reserve end the reduction of its balance sheet?
SWHY believes that the "normalization" of the Federal Reserve's unconventional MMF policy has a certain order, but it cannot be mechanically referenced to historical experience, as the opening of the interest rate cut cycle does not necessarily mean that the end of balance sheet reduction is just around the corner. The guiding principle for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is to change the state of reserve supply from "excess" to "adequate," which means that it should end the reduction before reaching a "shortage."
After the non-farm payroll report hit hard, Wall Street is "dizzy": Is the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts, or completely not lowering them at all?
① The unexpectedly high figures have prompted Wall Street Analysts to adjust their determinations on the USA Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; ② A relatively unified opinion is that there is no possibility of an interest rate cut in this month's meeting, nor is it very likely in March, with significant differences in determinations afterward; ③ At this critical moment, USA Consumer inflation expectations have sharply risen, and Biden has again demonstrated the White House's ability to stir up the Energy market before leaving office.
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December Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Estimates, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls
U.S. stock market early session | The three major Indexes all declined, with the Nasdaq down over 2%; Technology stocks plummeted, with AMD falling more than 5%; Blue-chip stocks surged against the trend! Pharmacy stock WBA rose over 25%.
On the evening of October 10 in Peking, US stocks opened lower on Friday. The surge in US bond yields put pressure on the stock indices, with the 30-year US bond yield rising to 5%. The non-farm payroll data for December significantly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell, leading investors to lower their expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
December US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slows