Is it stable? The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month has reached 80%.
① Last night, the completely market-expected usa October CPI data did not cause much of a stir in the market; ② However, the data performance still boosted market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut next month, and stimulated a rebound in short-term US government bonds.
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The Republican Party won a majority of seats in the House, but the slim advantage brings challenges.
House Republicans are expected to win a majority of seats in the next Congress, giving them unified control that allows Trump to have more say in budget and tax battles. However, given that the Republican majority is expected to be narrow and internal consensus may be difficult to achieve, this could hinder their efforts to advance Trump's agenda.
Express News | Citic sec: optimistic about the overall performance of the U.S. stock market in 2025, suggesting to pay attention to four main lines.
Goldman Sachs: The "rush towards junk stocks" trend will continue until Trump's inauguration, with the most short sold U.S. stocks being favored.
Goldman Sachs advises to continue holding the most short-sold stocks until the end of January next year, as a decrease in interest rates, avoidance of an economic recession, resolution of election uncertainties, and Trump's overwhelming victory will create an environment favorable for a rebound driven by 'animal spirits,' which benefits low-quality stocks.
Is the continued interest rate cut stable in December? Federal Reserve officials say inflation is moving in the right direction.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed confidence in the inflation heading in the right direction just minutes after the CPI was released, stating that it will take six weeks to analyze the data. Dallas Fed President Kaplan said that more rate cuts may be needed in the future, but it is best to act cautiously, as there are risks of inflation due to demand and geopolitical factors. Comments suggest she prefers to slow down rate cuts sooner rather than later. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that if inflation continues to decline, rate cuts should be gradual and monetary policy should remain 'slightly restrictive.' Kansas City Fed President George said it is uncertain how much the rate cuts will be in the future.