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iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Newsroom
Be careful of a significant pullback in the U.S. stock market! Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm for 2025: three major risks loom.
Goldman Sachs warned on Thursday that U.S. stocks will face a series of risks in 2025, which increase the likelihood of a significant market correction at some point this year; The three main risks are: a sharp rise in U.S. stocks in 2024, overly high U.S. stock valuations, and high or increased market concentration risk within the investment portfolio.
Futu Morning Brief | Is there a signal to "pause interest rate cuts"? Federal Reserve officials speak out collectively; Elon Musk live streams at CES, discussing ambitious plans, Tesla's robots are set to expand production by a hundredfold.
HSBC expects the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to rise by 21% this year and has raised its year-end target; Tencent has continuously reduced its shareholding in WEIMOB INC and UBTECH, cashing out 1.67 billion Hong Kong dollars, with WEIMOB INC responding.
Tonight's non-farm payroll report is coming! Signals of a slowdown in employment growth have emerged, and the health status of the labor market will soon be revealed.
With the recent continuous rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, the market is highly focused on the upcoming US non-farm employment data for December, which will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday.
Quietly, the Federal Reserve has given more attention to this "new" inflation Indicators.
Including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly focusing on a lesser-known inflation Index—the market-based version of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, which excludes a range of service industry data that its collectors cannot measure directly and must estimate. Currently, this Index is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, potentially indicating that the threshold for further interest rate cuts is lower than the market anticipates.
The outlook for Trump's policies is uncertain, the Federal Reserve is cautious, and this year the voting committee unanimously supports gradual interest rate cuts.
This year, the voting member and President of the Boston Federal Reserve, Collins, stated that the economic outlook is very uncertain, and requires a gradual and patient approach to interest rate cuts, expecting the number of cuts this year to be reduced to two from previous expectations; another voting member this year, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Schmidt, stated that if economic data improves, it supports gradual rate cuts; the Federal Reserve is close to the neutral interest rate, nearly achieving the dual mandate of inflation and employment, and further balance sheet reduction is needed; the 2026 voting member, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated support for further rate cuts this year, but the timing depends on the data, and action should be paused for now; the 2027 voting member, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that it is the term premium, not inflation, that drives up long-term interest rates.
Minister Ma candidly stated that reducing federal spending by 2 trillion is an overly idealistic goal.
① Musk stated that the proposed "Department of Government Efficiency" in the USA may not be able to achieve its preset highest goal of cutting federal government spending by 2 trillion dollars; ② Musk emphasized in an exclusive interview that this is not an admission of failure in advance, and he can still help Trump achieve "epic results."
The Federal Reserve shifts to "market-based" inflation Indicators, adding optimistic grounds for the economic outlook.
Including Chairman Jerome Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly relying on a lesser-known price indicator - "market-based" inflation, as a basis for their optimistic economic outlook.
USA officials expect that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may begin early this year!
On the eve of leaving office, the Biden administration released another 0.5 billion USD in aid to Ukraine, to increase Ukraine's "potential bargaining chips."
The deep recession alert has been sounded! USA credit card debt unexpectedly plummets.
In November, USA consumer credit decreased significantly by 7.5 billion dollars, with unpaid credit card and other revolving debt balances plummeting by 13.8 billion dollars, marking the largest monthly drop since the economic shutdown triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis suggests that whenever there is such a sharp decline in revolving credit, the USA economy is often on the brink of recession or already in recession.
Federal Reserve's Collins: The number of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be lower than previously expected.
Due to strong employment data and persistent inflation, Boston Federal Reserve President Collins is inclined to expect smaller rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated a few months ago.
US Stock Digging for Gold | Meta Makes Concessions Under EU Antitrust! eBay Soars Nearly 10% Overnight; Henry Hub Natural Gas Stocks Make a Comeback in the New Year! Stocks like EQT Corp Continue to Rise.
Milestone development! Streaming company Roku revealed that in the first week of 2025, it gained 90 million household users, and the stock price has risen over 11% within five trading days this year.
Daily Options Tracking | Quantum Computing stocks RGTI and IONQ experienced massive fluctuations! The highest put option made a profit of 177 times; NVIDIA basically closed flat overnight, and Call options were again snatched up.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's remarks led to a significant pullback in Quantum Computing concept stocks, with a surge in Volume for RGTI and IONQ Options, and multiple put options making substantial profits.
Strong dividends are on the rise: a new peak in growth is expected in 2025!
S&P 500 companies' dividends are expected to set new records in 2025, with a growth rate projected to reach 7%-12%, higher than last year's 6%.
What impact do Trump's tariffs have? Federal Reserve officials stated for the first time: Support for further interest rate cuts this year!
①Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports interest rate cuts this year, although he believes that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may not significantly impact inflation. ②Waller expects the inflation rate to approach the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months and believes that medium-term inflation will continue to move toward 2%.
Quantum computing, Nuclear Power, Cryptos, cannabis! USA individual investors' "favorite" collectively adjusted last night.
① Although the three major stock indices in the USA fluctuated on Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index, which performed the worst, only fell by 0.16%—a performance that cannot be considered terrible. ② However, for many American retail investors who enjoy the thrill of speculating on meme Stocks, this Wednesday seems to have been a disastrous day: because many of their favorite investment symbols experienced a remarkable collapse.
Futu Daily Report | Will the Federal Reserve pause interest rate cuts? Meeting minutes show officials are eager to slow down the pace of rate cuts; U.S. stocks are closed today in mourning for the death of former President Carter's.
The Trump team is reportedly considering declaring a national economic emergency to implement high and widespread tariffs; Bearish surprise! A single remark from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang triggered a collective drop in USA quantum computing stocks.
Top 20 Transaction Amount | Quantum Computing concept stocks have significantly pulled back, with IONQ dropping 39%, RGTI falling over 45%, and Jensen Huang stating that commercialization will require at least another 15 years.
On Wednesday, the stock with the highest trading volume in the US market was NVIDIA, which closed down 0.02%, with a trading volume of 31.802 billion USD. The second was Tesla, which closed up 0.15%, with a trading volume of 28.804 billion USD. The third was Apple, which closed up 0.20%, with a trading volume of 9.105 billion USD.
The Trump team is moving to restructure the leadership of the Federal Reserve, with Bowman likely being promoted to Vice Chair for Financial Regulation, and adjustments made to the list of Powell's successors.
According to media reports citing informed sources, Waller, who became a member of the Federal Reserve Board during Trump's first presidential term, has seen his "advantage" for becoming the chairman of the Federal Reserve significantly decline, as Trump is unhappy with his support for a substantial rate cut last September. Trump's advisory team will closely monitor the current Federal Reserve officials' statements on interest rates to assess who is suitable to take on the role of the next central bank leader.
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes suggest a pause in interest rate cuts, with "almost all" policymakers believing that Trump's policies may drive up inflation.
The "New Federal Reserve News Agency": The minutes suggest that Fed officials will temporarily keep interest rates unchanged, partly due to Trump's intention to impose tariffs, and they anticipate the risk of inflation being higher than expected.
Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Officials tend to slow the pace of interest rate cuts as inflationary risks increase.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting show that officials decided to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in the coming months due to high inflation risks; participants expect inflation to continue approaching 2%, but it may take longer than expected, and the process of returning inflation to target may have temporarily stalled; regarding interest rate cuts, officials emphasized that future policy actions will depend on the development of data rather than a fixed timetable.