Futu Morning Post | Citigroup strategist talks about the 'Trump winning trade', a good opportunity to profit from the surge in US stocks; AI capital spending continues to expand! Microsoft, Meta both fell after hours.
USA Treasury Department's heavyweight quarterly refinancing announcement: Maintain long-term bond auction scale and guidance unchanged; the U.S. presidential election is undecided, the dollar hedging cost has risen to the highest since 2022; it will impact 3000 dollars next year! Goldman Sachs raises gold price expectations, stating that central bank demand expectations have quadrupled.
US stock market early trading | Reddit surged 34%, Q3 performance and Q4 guidance both exceeded expectations; super micro computer plummeted nearly 26%, with the auditing firm resigning.
Snap rose by 13%, with third-quarter revenue and user growth exceeding expectations; Donald Trump concept stocks fluctuated during the trading day, with Phunware rising by over 6%, and Trump Media & Technology Group falling by over 11%.
US stocks outlook: The US 'mini non-farm' in October far exceeds expectations, marking the largest increase since July last year; Google rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading, benefiting from cloud business growth and exceeding expectations for Q3 performa
USA's actual GDP for the third quarter grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, driven by business and household consumer spending; New Bond King: US economic data is being "manipulated," firmly believes interest rates are bottoming out; Eli Lilly and Co. stock fell by 10% pre-market, with third-quarter revenue increasing by 20% year-on-year, falling short of expectations.
Options Daily Tracking | AMD overnight call options money surged 6 times! But pre-market stock price dropped more than 8%; as the election nears! Big players are betting on increased volatility in DJT.
SoFi Technologies fell more than 6% overnight, options volume surged to 1.04 million contracts, more than four times the daily average volume, call proportion remained unchanged from the previous day at 68%.
Economists: The Federal Reserve has not yet tamed inflation.
Economists point out that the Federal Reserve should maintain caution regarding inflation, and Federal policymakers should acknowledge their mistakes, otherwise they may repeat the same mistakes.
Asian Markets Mostly Lower, Japan Extends Gains
Futu Morning Post | Global asset frenzy! Nasdaq, gold hit record highs, bitcoin nearing historical highs; Cloud business strong growth! Google up nearly 6% after hours.
Da Ma: US stocks have not fully priced in a Trump victory; The "fear index" VIX has turned net long for the first time since 2018; AMD fell more than 7% after-hours, fourth-quarter revenue outlook fell short of analyst's expectations.
US stocks early market | DJT multiple circuit breakers intraday! Trading hot on the donald trump concept; Cryptos concept stocks rallied and then fell back, microstrategy down 0.33%, Coinbase up 0.86%
On the evening of the 29th Beijing time, the U.S. stock market opened with mixed gains and losses. The U.S. Treasury bond yields continued to rise. Investors are preparing for the financial reports of important technology companies such as Alphabet and AMD.
US stock market outlook: Surge over 280% since September low! Trump's campaign ignites DJT; Nomura warns: Trump's trade hedge excessive or may lead to "Harris incident"
Pre-market trading sees most China concept stocks rising, with nio inc and jd.com up over 3%; solar sector trending downwards, daqo new energy dropping over 8%; d.r. horton down over 10% pre-market, 2025 revenue guidance below expectations.
Daily options tracking | Bitcoin breaks through the $70,000 mark! Crypto mining company MARA's call options rise to 80%; Trump Media options trading is hot, multiple call orders make over 2 times profit.
Pre-market on Tuesday local time, the options chain of 'usa version Huabei' Sofi, which is about to release its financial report, has a volume of 0.65 million contracts. This marks a 35% increase from yesterday's volume, making it the third highest volume option from yesterday. The call options accounted for 68% of the total. Among the options expiring this Friday on the options chain, the highest trading volumes were at the $12 and $11.5 strike prices, with 0.048 million contracts and 28,000 contracts respectively.
Did the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, is it not set in stone? Wharton School professor: Whether they cut or not depends on the non-farm payrolls!
①Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School, said that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at next week's monetary policy meeting, which will surprise the market; ② He said that although investors are almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points again in November, if the non-farm payroll report released this Friday is strong, it may overturn these expectations.
Futu Morning Post | Chinese concept stocks lead the US large cap market! The Jinlong index rose by more than 4%; Nomura warns: the market is hedging excessively against Trump trade, may see a 'Harris accident'.
Apple released the iMac with the M4 chip, the first batch of AI features officially implemented; US oil plunged by over 6%, the worst in over two years, Citigroup lowered its oil price target; Bitcoin traders once again look to surpass the $0.07 million mark, with funds flowing into US etf.
Stocks rebound after the election with no fear! Goldman Sachs fund flow expert: We are in the best Q4 trading period in nearly a century.
Goldman Sachs expert Rubner stated that this Monday marks the beginning of the best fourth quarter trading period for US stocks based on data since 1928, as well as the start of the best trading period of the year during election years. The buyback window for the largest US listed companies also resumed on Monday; the median return on investment (ROI) for the s&p 500 index from October 27 to December 31 in election years since 1928 is 6.25%.
US stocks early trading | Donald Trump concept stocks collectively rose, DJT surged 13%, Rumble rose over 6%; Many popular China concept stocks showed strength, Xiaopeng rose over 7%, Nio Inc rose 5%
Apple rose by 0.8%, the Indonesian government recently announced a ban on selling the iPhone 16 series in the country; Boeing fell by 1.67%, and will issue 90 million shares of stocks and 5 billion US dollars in depositary stocks.
US stock market outlook | Super week is coming! Large technology stocks' earnings reports join hands with PCE, 'non-farm' explosive scene; Morgan Stanley: US stocks will continue to dominate the global market in the next ten years.
Royal Philips Q3 sales were below expectations, lowering full-year sales guidance, down nearly 17% pre-market; Bitcoin back above $68,000, cryptos concept stocks rose pre-market.
Options Outlook | Apple's heavyweight financial report is coming! The stock price's one-day post-performance change may approach 4%; Will AMD's profit double? Call options ratio reaches seventy percent.
Meta's current implied volatility is ±8.3%, compared to the previous four quarters, the post-earnings stock price change was approximately 9.9%, indicating that the current options value is still underestimated; as the stock price volatility has historically had a 60% chance of exceeding market expectations, the success rate of using a bullish straddle options strategy during earnings season is about 75%.
Analysis of the 'Fed's Echo Chamber': The hidden dangers of new inflation after the election.
Trump may be heading into a new feud with the Federal Reserve, and any factor that reignites inflation could lead officials to slow down or even halt interest rate cuts.
Express News | What did the China-US economic working group discuss? China revealed: In November, a large-scale incremental policy will be announced after the statutory procedures.
Futu Express | Fierce Competition! The USA presidential election enters the sprint phase, with a record-high early voting rate; NYSE's heavyweight official announcement! Intends to extend US stock trading hours.
The 14th session of the 12th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing from November 4th to 8th; the apple AI feature Apple Intelligence officially launched this week; How difficult is shorting US stocks? Tesla's short positions, which made money this year, were wiped out in just one day.
BofA's Hartnett: The election will strengthen Wall Street's four core trades, but inflation and economic downturn will reverse everything.
Bank of America analyst Hartnett pointed out that the four core trading strategies on Wall Street now are, bearish on bonds, bullish on gold and technology stocks. Tightening immigration policies may trigger inflation, leading to further increase in gold prices. The market is worried that Fed rate cuts may lead to inflation and overheating of the economy, with bond yields unexpectedly rising after the rate cut, causing US stocks to become more concentrated. Now is not a good time to buy bonds and stocks.