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Weekly Outlook | The Federal Reserve takes the lead as the last "Central Bank Super Week" of the year is approaching; China's economic data for November and important inflation data from the USA will soon be revealed.
Currently, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December, reaching as high as 97%. However, due to stronger data in November, the risk of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in early 2025 has increased, making Powell's post-meeting remarks and the latest economic forecasts crucial.
Next week will be the last "Central Bank Super Week" of this year, and 24-hour traders will have to work non-stop.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its last interest rate decision meeting of the year, followed by Japan, Nordic countries, the United Kingdom... By the close of business next Friday, at least 22 central banks globally will announce their interest rate decisions, representing a total of two-fifths of the global economy.
Express News | The Ministry of Finance announced that next year it will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that fiscal policy is continuously strengthened and more effective.
The Securities Regulatory Commission: Firmly implement the important requirement of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" and focus on promoting the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market.
On December 14, Wu Qing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, presided over a meeting of the Party Committee (expanded) to convey and study the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and in conjunction with the requirements of the national financial system work meeting, researched and deployed the implementation work of the CSRC system.
Bank of America: Investors poured into China Stocks in the past week, with the amount of funds raised reaching a nine-week high.
Considering that investors have made large-scale bets on the strength of the dollar and rising US bond yields, Hartnett warns of the risk of "overshooting" at the beginning of next year. He believes that, as inflation continues to force the Fed to take a more hawkish stance, Bonds, Gold, and international Stocks will become attractive Assets. Hartnett thinks that the first quarter of next year is the entry point for non-USA Stocks.
Express News | Director Wang Xin of the Central Bank Research Bureau: There will be timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and an increase in the intensity of MMF.
The latest statement from the Central Financial Office: This year's GDP in China is expected to grow by around 5%; the new wording of policies has significant implications, and specific plans will be showcased at the national two sessions.
Today (14th), at the 2024-2025 China Economic Annual Conference held at the China International Economic Exchange Center, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Committee responsible for daily operations and Director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, stated that China's GDP is expected to grow by about 5% this year.
Express News | Deputy Director of the Central Finance Office Han Wenxiu: The new policy terminology has high value, and specific plans will be unveiled at the National Two Sessions.
Top 20 by transaction amount | Tesla's stock price has reached a historic high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 80% since the election; Broadcom surged 24% after earnings, with a Market Cap surpassing 1 trillion USD.
On Friday, the first in U.S. stock trading volume was Tesla, which rose 4.34%, reaching a historical high price, with a trading volume of 38.132 billion USD; the second was NVIDIA, which fell 2.25%, with a trading volume of 31.251 billion USD; the third was Broadcom, which rose 24.43%, with a trading volume of 26.607 billion USD, and its Market Cap surpassed 1 trillion USD.
U.S. stock market close | The Nasdaq 100 has risen for four consecutive weeks, Tesla's stock increased by over 4% reaching a new historical high, Broadcom surged over 24% after earnings with a market cap surpassing one trillion dollars.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones falling for the seventh consecutive Trade day, marking the longest losing streak since 2020, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate cuts next week.
U.S. stock market early session | The Nasdaq rose slightly, reaching a new high during the session! Most Cryptos concept stocks increased, with RIOT rising by 6%.
On the evening of the 13th in Peking, the US stock market opened higher on Friday. After Broadcom released its Earnings Reports, its stock price surged, leading to a widespread increase in Technology stocks. The USA's import price Index for November was higher than expected. The market focus shifts to next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week seems very likely! The market is focusing on the latest economic forecast.
Investors generally believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on December 17-18, and will focus more on the new economic forecasts released by decision-makers at the same time they make their decision.
Trump discusses the possibility of war between the US and Iran: anything is possible, the situation is very unstable.
① The elected President Trump of the USA stated in a recent interview that he does not rule out the possibility of war between the USA and Iran; ② According to previous media reports, Trump will continue to exert maximum pressure on Iran during his second term.
US Stock Outlook | Is the unemployment rate in the USA showing warning signs? Societe Generale warns: there will be a risk of recession next year; AI chip stocks are soaring in pre-market, Broadcom has risen over 17% after earnings.
Meta has released a new AI model that will enhance the Metaverse experience; with multiple Bullish factors combined, Taiwan Semiconductor rose over 2% in pre-market trading; Eli Lilly and Co's Mounjaro has replaced Novo-Nordisk A/S's Wegovy, becoming the new favorite weight loss drug in the United Kingdom.
Daily Options Tracking | Broadcom surged over 14% before the market opens! Multiple Call orders are being placed in advance; the popularity of the Bitcoin mining company RIOT suddenly increased! The Options market is bullish up to 20 dollars.
Overnight, the Nasdaq fell from its historical Top Reversal, and major Technology stocks in the US generally declined, with a decrease in trading activity in the Options Chain. NVIDIA dropped over 1%, with Options Volume falling to 2.7 million contracts, while the Call ratio slightly decreased to 66.6%. On the Options Chain, the Calls expiring today with strike prices of $140/$138/$137 were the most popular, each with a Volume of over 0.11 million contracts.
Can global central banks transition from draining to releasing liquidity, allowing the stock market to surge again?
If the drying up of liquidity has not posed a significant obstacle to the market this year, will the improvement of liquidity next year become a tailwind for driving the market?
Criticism from two Democrats: Musk's Government Efficiency Department is "doomed to fail."
In the view of Democrats, Musk's DOGE Department of Government Efficiency is destined to fail because it focuses on the wrong objectives, employs the wrong methods, and has leadership issues. They believe that if DOGE wants to make a contribution, it should abandon its absolute monetary goals and instead focus on improving the Institutions' efficiency of government projects.
The short sellers in the US stock market have almost all turned bullish! Now only two Institutions remain bearish.
Wall Street is generally optimistic about the US stock market in 2025. Will these two Institutions become the "right minority"?
Futu Morning News | The Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone! Next year, the fiscal deficit rate needs to be increased; Broadcom soared over 15% after hours! Q4 profit exceeded expectations.
Inflation unexpectedly accelerates! In November, the USA PPI month-on-month growth rate reached the highest increase since June; AI transformation faces challenges! Adobe's performance forecast fell short of expectations, dropping more than 13% after the earnings report.
From the perspective of Fed Governor Waller, CPI indicates that inflation is moving in the wrong direction.
According to the so-called Waller rule, the breadth of inflation is increasing.