U.S. stock market morning | The three major Indexes are collectively rising, Broadcom surged nearly 9%, Tesla and Google both hit historical highs; Cryptos Concept stocks are strongly rising, MARA climbed nearly 7%, Coinbase rose nearly 4%.
On the evening of the 16th in Beijing time, several central banks will hold meetings this week and a large amount of important economic data will be released. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in December.
U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major futures indexes rose collectively, with Tesla pre-market up nearly 1%, poised to set a historical high at the open; Goldman Sachs: The Federal Reserve will "skip" a rate cut in January, and may signal a slowdown in easing
Super Micro Computer fell nearly 14% before the market and was removed from the NASDAQ 100 Index component; Broadcom continues to rise 3% before the market, as Bank of America raised the Target Price to $250.
Annual Outlook | 7100 points! Wall Street refreshes the Target Price for the S&P, is a bull market in US stocks continuing in 2025?
Overall, major banks are optimistic, with the highest target for the S&P reaching 7,100 points, while the average target point according to Bloomberg Statistics is 6,496.17 points, indicating more than a 7% upside potential from the current latest closing price; many bears have flipped their positions, and only two Institutions remain cautious about the direction of the U.S. stock market.
Wall Street tycoons shout: The FED's "triple cut" this week is not unexpected, but the easing cycle will pause here!
①This Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and Wall Street widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, achieving a "three consecutive reductions." ②Krishna Guha, Vice Director of Evercore ISI, stated, "The December FOMC meeting will mark the end of the first phase of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle."
There are significant differences in policy viewpoints within Trump's cabinet. Will market pricing undergo major changes?
Investors should pay attention to the policy risks of Trump 2.0.
Daily Options Tracking | Entering the trillion-dollar Market Cap club! After Broadcom's earnings report, multiple call contracts earned over 10 times profit; is Bitcoin aiming for the $0.11 million mark? MSTR's implied volatility rose to 112% last Friday.
SoundHound AI rose over 23% on the previous trading day, with the Call ratio increasing to 71%, and the Options Chain volume increasing by 2.77 times to 0.525 million contracts. On the Options Chain, bulls are the market Block Orders, with the highest Call volume for this Friday's expiration at strike prices of $20 and $10, respectively 0.024 million and 18,000 contracts.
The "New Federal Reserve News Agency": After another rate cut this week, the Federal Reserve is ready to slow down or even stop cutting rates.
Nick Timiraos stated that one of the choices for the Federal Reserve this week is to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and then strongly hint at slowing the pace of rate cuts using new economic forecasts. Facing differing opinions internally, Powell must balance policy adjustments.
Asia Markets Mixed as Traders Assess Mixed Economic Data in the Region; Eyes on Major Central Back Decisions
China's Nov Retail Sales Slows as Stimulus Impact Fades; Unemployment Rate Held Steady
Futu Morning News | Ready for the "Federal Reserve Decision Day"! More than 20 central banks from various countries will hold meetings this week; the adjustment of Nasdaq 100 constituents will take effect next week! Palantir and MSTR have been included.
This week's highlights from the Federal Reserve: There's no doubt about a rate cut in December, but January remains uncertain; Tesla's stock rose over 4% to a new high, and reports indicate that Trump's team is seeking to abolish the requirement for accident reports for autonomous vehicles.
Super central bank week! China is about to announce multiple economic data for November, will the central bank soon lower the reserve requirement ratio?
More than 20 central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, will successively announce their interest rate decisions. In addition to the interest rate resolution in the USA, China's November economic data is also being closely monitored by the Capital Markets.
Weekly Outlook | The Federal Reserve takes the lead as the last "Central Bank Super Week" of the year is approaching; China's economic data for November and important inflation data from the USA will soon be revealed.
Currently, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December, reaching as high as 97%. However, due to stronger data in November, the risk of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in early 2025 has increased, making Powell's post-meeting remarks and the latest economic forecasts crucial.
Next week will be the last "Central Bank Super Week" of this year, and 24-hour traders will have to work non-stop.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its last interest rate decision meeting of the year, followed by Japan, Nordic countries, the United Kingdom... By the close of business next Friday, at least 22 central banks globally will announce their interest rate decisions, representing a total of two-fifths of the global economy.
Express News | The Ministry of Finance announced that next year it will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that fiscal policy is continuously strengthened and more effective.
The Securities Regulatory Commission: Firmly implement the important requirement of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" and focus on promoting the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market.
On December 14, Wu Qing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, presided over a meeting of the Party Committee (expanded) to convey and study the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and in conjunction with the requirements of the national financial system work meeting, researched and deployed the implementation work of the CSRC system.
Bank of America: Investors poured into China Stocks in the past week, with the amount of funds raised reaching a nine-week high.
Considering that investors have made large-scale bets on the strength of the dollar and rising US bond yields, Hartnett warns of the risk of "overshooting" at the beginning of next year. He believes that, as inflation continues to force the Fed to take a more hawkish stance, Bonds, Gold, and international Stocks will become attractive Assets. Hartnett thinks that the first quarter of next year is the entry point for non-USA Stocks.
Express News | Director Wang Xin of the Central Bank Research Bureau: There will be timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and an increase in the intensity of MMF.
The latest statement from the Central Financial Office: This year's GDP in China is expected to grow by around 5%; the new wording of policies has significant implications, and specific plans will be showcased at the national two sessions.
Today (14th), at the 2024-2025 China Economic Annual Conference held at the China International Economic Exchange Center, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Committee responsible for daily operations and Director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, stated that China's GDP is expected to grow by about 5% this year.
Express News | Deputy Director of the Central Finance Office Han Wenxiu: The new policy terminology has high value, and specific plans will be unveiled at the National Two Sessions.
Top 20 by transaction amount | Tesla's stock price has reached a historic high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 80% since the election; Broadcom surged 24% after earnings, with a Market Cap surpassing 1 trillion USD.
On Friday, the first in U.S. stock trading volume was Tesla, which rose 4.34%, reaching a historical high price, with a trading volume of 38.132 billion USD; the second was NVIDIA, which fell 2.25%, with a trading volume of 31.251 billion USD; the third was Broadcom, which rose 24.43%, with a trading volume of 26.607 billion USD, and its Market Cap surpassed 1 trillion USD.