Zhongyuan Real Estate: The Zhongyuan Valuation Index (CVI) has stabilized above 50 points for three consecutive weeks, indicating repeated contention in Hong Kong's property prices.
This week, the Central Plains Valuation Index (main Banks) CVI reported 50.35 points, a decrease of 3.85 points from last week's 54.20 points.
Market Chatter: Banks Cut Margin Financing Ratio of New World Development
Goldman Sachs: The average capitalization rate for commercial Real Estate in Hong Kong has risen to 5.7%. It maintains the "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01113) and SHK PPT (00016).
The report indicates that from the beginning of the year to now, the retail and office rental Index in Hong Kong have decreased by 4% and 5% respectively, and as of the end of October, the price Index has shown a double-digit decline.
Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) is applying for the redevelopment of 674 units at the Tsuen Wan Empire Hotel, expected to receive the 'green light' for approval.
In August of this year, the Tsuen Wan Imperial Hotel (00016.HK) submitted a new development proposal to the Town Planning Board to rebuild 674 residential units. The Planning Department has recently expressed no objections, and the project is scheduled for discussion today, likely to receive the green light. The Planning Department stated that the project consulted various relevant government departments, and no negative comments were raised. Moreover, the applicant conducted a technical assessment and concluded that the proposed development would not have negative impacts on air ventilation, Sewerage, Transportation, and the environment; therefore, the department does not oppose the application. According to the documents, the Tsuen Wan Imperial Hotel is located at 353 Qing Shan Road, Ting Kau, Tsuen Wan, and is currently classified as "Residence (Category B)."
Major banks' ratings丨Goldman Sachs: Maintains "Buy" ratings for CK ASSET and SHK PPT and a "Sell" rating for HENDERSON LAND.
On December 20th, GLOBE reported that Goldman Sachs maintained 'Buy' ratings for CK ASSET and SHK PPT, with target prices of HKD 92 and HKD 41 respectively; additionally, it maintained a 'Sell' rating for HENDERSON LAND, with a target price of HKD 19.5. The report indicated that as of the end of October, Hong Kong's retail and office rental index had cumulatively fallen by approximately 4% and 5% year-to-date, while prices dropped by double digits. According to the bank's estimates, the current mortgage interest rates for Hong Kong's retail and office properties have increased by approximately 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points compared to 2023, reaching 6.7% and 4.7% respectively. This has led to a decline in Hong Kong's commercial Real Estate market.
Goldman Sachs maintains "Buy" ratings for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113.HK) and New World Development (00016.HK), and "Sell" ratings for Shanghai New World (00017.HK) and Henderson Land Development (00012.HK).
Goldman Sachs released a report stating that it maintains the 'Buy' rating for CK ASSET (01113.HK) and New World Development (00016.HK), with Target Prices of 92 HKD and 41 HKD respectively; it also maintains the 'Sell' rating for Shanghai New World (00017.HK) and Henderson Land Development (00012.HK), with Target Prices of 5.8 HKD and 19.5 HKD respectively. The report indicates that as of the end of October, the Hong Kong retail and office rental Indices have fallen by about 4% and 5% year-to-date, while prices have decreased by double digits. According to the bank's estimates, the current mortgage interest rate ceiling for Hong Kong retail and office is up by about 0.4 and 0 compared to 2023.
TRANSPORT INT'L (00062.HK) has entered into an insurance arrangement with SHK PPT for 2025/26.
On December 19, Gelonghui announced that TRANSPORT INT'L (00062.HK) signed an insurance arrangement for 2025/26 with a wholly-owned subsidiary of SHK PPT, SHK PPT Insurance, on December 19, 2024. According to this insurance arrangement, SHK PPT Insurance will provide insurance and related services to the group, and the policies signed under the 2025/26 insurance arrangement will take effect from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2026.
Market Chatter: MTR Gets Four Bids for Tung Chung East Station Project
'Property Market to Pick up Next Year'
MIDLAND HOLDING: Hong Kong property prices are expected to "counterattack" next year, with an estimated increase of around 5%.
MIDLAND HOLDING expects that next year Hong Kong property prices are likely to "rebound," reversing a three-year decline, with an increase of about 5%, and rents rising another 6%.
J.P. Morgan's investment ratings and Target Prices for Hong Kong real estate stocks and Banks (table).
JPMorgan published a research report, listing the investment ratings and Target Prices for local property stocks as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) SHK PPT (00016.HK) | Neutral | 70 HKD CK ASSET (01113.HK) | Neutral | 32 HKD HANG CHI PROPERTY (00012.HK) | Shareholding | 25 HKD SINO LAND (00083.HK) | Shareholding | 10 HKD NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) | Shareholding | 5.6 HKD SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) | Shareholding.
New Land (00016.HK) expects double-digit growth in business at Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning & Architectural Design in December.
Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning & Architectural Design (00016.HK)旗下, Shatin New City Plaza is celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, hosting multiple cold fireworks music performances on weekends in December. There will also be poetry recitals by local students and groups, Santa Claus Meets & Greets, and a large countdown carnival and party event at the end of the year to welcome 2025. Through continuous programming to create a joyful atmosphere, the goal is to boost Consumer spending and drive business growth for merchants. Under various promotional strategies, the overall foot traffic and Consumer spending at the plaza in December are expected to increase significantly compared to the same period last year, particularly in Dining, Jewelry Watches, beauty, and fashion.
Hong Kong Stock Movements | Hong Kong Property Stocks decline as the Federal Reserve implements a "hawkish rate cut". Morgan Stanley anticipates that Hong Kong's property market will still face challenges next year.
Hong Kong Property Stocks declined. As of the time of publication, LINK REIT (00823) fell by 2.55%, trading at 32.45 HKD; SHK PPT (00016) decreased by 2.23%, at 72.3 HKD; HENDERSON LAND (00012) dropped by 2.07%, at 23.6 HKD.
New World Development (00016.HK) has successfully auctioned off a four-bedroom double suite unit with a platform in the Kai Tak "The Royal 8" at a price exceeding 0.036 million per square foot.
New World Development (00016.HK) sold another unit at Kai Tak's "The Treasury" by tender yesterday (18th). The unit sold this time was the Superior Sky Villa B on the 41st floor of Tower 6 (Apex Tower), featuring a four-bedroom double suite layout, a 555 square foot terrace, and a usable area of 1,622 square feet, with a transaction amount of 59.1458 million yuan and a price per square foot of 36,465 yuan, making it an ideal investment.
The first phase of the East Tung Chung Station project of MTR Corporation (00066.HK) has temporarily received two bids.
The first phase property development project at Tung Chung East Station (00066.HK) of MTR will close for bids today (18th) at 2 PM. As of 12 PM, two bids have been received on site. The project was tendered at the end of last year but ended in "zero bids," and has been reintroduced to the market after being subdivided this year. The Tung Chung East Station project is located opposite the under-construction Tung Chung East Station. MTR is now "subdividing" the project for phased development and reintroducing it. Previously, several developers submitted letters of intent, including New World Development (00016.HK), Henderson Land Development (00012.HK), Wheelock Properties, Junefield Development, Kin Hoi Realty, and FE CONSORT INTL.
The twelve major shopping malls under New World are increasing their promotional expenses by over 20%, expecting a 12% year-on-year increase in business during the Christmas Gold season.
New World Development (00016.HK) will invest more resources in its twelve major shopping malls (East Point City, Sheung Shui Plaza, North Point Exchange, Tseung Kwan O Center, Mikiki, PopWalk, Tien Kin Hui, Chok Yiu Plaza, Tsuen Kin Center, New Territories Plaza, life@KCC and joy@KCC) this Christmas, with promotional expenses increasing by 20% year-on-year. Various holiday-themed decorations, Consumer rewards, and themed redemption activities will be launched to attract both local and visiting citizens and tourists. It is expected that foot traffic during the Christmas Gold period in the group's twelve major shopping malls will see double-digit growth compared to the same period last year, particularly in Dining.
Meridians: It is expected that MMI still has room for decline, which will have a positive effect on the Hong Kong property market.
In November 2024, the Mortgage Interest Rate Index (MMI) was reported at 3.78%, a decrease of 12 basis points from the previous month, marking a decline for six consecutive months and reaching a new low in 14 months.
Hong Kong Property Stocks generally declined, with NEW WORLD DEV (00017) falling by 6.73%. Morgan Stanley expects that the Hong Kong Real Estate market will still face challenges next year.
King Information | Hong Kong Property Stocks have broadly declined, with NEW WORLD DEV (00017) down 6.73%, HYSAN DEV (00014) down 2.32%, SWIRE PACIFIC A (00019) down 2.15%, HENDERSON LAND (00012) down 2.03%, CK ASSET (01113) down 1.58%, and SHK PPT (00016) down 1.06%. Morgan Stanley published a research report indicating that the Hong Kong Real Estate market shows no signs of improvement next year, and challenges are expected to persist, as high interest rates are unfavorable for the overall development of Hong Kong's property market. Although local real estate stocks are relatively cheap in terms of valuation.
Hong Kong Stock Afternoon Review | All three major Indices fell, with the Tech Index down 1%; Network Technology stocks weakened, with SenseTime down over 3%; Cryptos Concept stocks rose against the trend, with BOYAA up nearly 6%.
Network Technology stocks weakened, SenseTime-W fell by 3.23%, XIAOMI-W dropped by 2.23%; most Securities and Brokerage stocks declined, China Merchants fell by 2.96%, China International Capital Corporation dropped by 2.45%; most Apple Supplier stocks declined, TK GROUP HLDG rose by 3.45%, AAC TECH fell by 2.86%.
According to Morgan Stanley, the outlook for Hong Kong real estate remains challenging next year, with a preference for stocks like New World Development (00016.HK) and Link REIT (00823.HK) that have sustainable dividend-paying ability.
Morgan Stanley published a research report indicating that there will be no improvement in the Hong Kong Real Estate market next year, which is expected to remain challenging, with interest rates remaining at a high level, unfavorable for the overall development of the Hong Kong property market. Although many local Real Estate stocks are undervalued, Morgan Stanley believes that market oversupply and developers' inventory accumulation are unhelpful for market development. It is currently forecasted that residential property prices will continue to decline in the first half of next year. As favorable factors such as higher mortgage ratios, the cancellation of additional stamp duty, lower mortgage rates, rising rental levels, and population Inflow emerge, they should contribute to property prices rising in the second half of next year. Morgan Stanley is Bullish on developers with sustainable dividends, preferring Sun Hung Kai Properties.
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