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Guo Jiayao: Short-term lacking upward momentum, Bud APAC (01876.HK) underperforms expectations.
Independent stock commentator Guo Jiayao stated that on Monday (11th), the US stock market continued to rise, with all three major indices opening higher and continuing to climb, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index reaching new closing highs. The US dollar trend is positive, with the yield on the US ten-year Treasury maintaining at 4.30%, while gold and oil prices experienced significant declines. Hong Kong stocks as a whole were relatively weak, with expectations of a lower open for the overall market in the early session. The mainland stock market rose yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening lower but moving higher throughout the day, closing up by 0.5%. Trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen remained active. Hong Kong stocks performed poorly as mainland fiscal policy measures fell short of expectations, leading to a weaker trend in the RMB and dragging the market to nearly touch the 20,000 point mark before later declining.
HK Stocks | Liquor stocks fell in the morning session, baijiu continues to be under pressure, beer sales decline, institutions say policy impact on consumer driving still needs to be observed.
Alcohol stocks fell in the morning session. As of the time of writing, China Res Beer (00291) fell by 6.37%, closing at 29.4 Hong Kong dollars; Tsingtao Brew (00168) fell by 5.14%, closing at 51.7 Hong Kong dollars; Bud APAC (01876) fell by 3.58%, closing at 8.35 Hong Kong dollars; ZJLD (06979) fell by 3.87%, closing at 7.45 Hong Kong dollars.
Vacant for three years, Bud APAC China's president has finally been appointed. Can he reverse the declining trend in performance?
Fabio Sala will take over as the Bud China regional president after a three-year vacancy, reporting directly to Jan Craps, CEO of Bud APAC. At the same time, Luke, Chief Sales Officer of the China region, will be promoted to Bud Group as the Global Strategy Vice President; Jeff, President of the Bud China East Business Division, will take over Luke's position and report to the new president Fabio Sala.
Stock market updates: Hong Kong's dining and alcoholic beverages sector are strong, with Helen's up 16% and zjld up 8%. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce new policies in the consumer sector.
The Hong Kong dining sector showed strong performance in the morning session, with Helen's up by 16.38%, Jiumaojiu up by 14.36%, and Xiabuxiabu up by 9%. The alcoholic beverages sector also strengthened, with ZJLD up by 8%, China Res Beer up by 6%, and Tsingtao Brew up by 4%.
Express News | Alcoholic beverage stocks in the Hong Kong stock market collectively strengthened, with zjld up nearly 7%, china res beer up over 5%, tsingtao brew, and bud apac up more than 3%.
HSBC Research lowered the target price of Bud APAC (01876.HK) to 9.1 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating on Qingdao Brewery (00168.HK).
HSBC Research's report stated that the sales volume of the mainland beer industry in the third quarter did not recover as expected by the bank. Even with a low base, the average sales volume in the third quarter dropped by 6.2% year-on-year for the tracked companies. The bank believes that this is due to the reduction of consumer spending on outings, favoring drinking beer at home. The bank expects that most companies will focus on destocking in the fourth quarter, anticipating that losses in the fourth quarter will narrow year-on-year due to favorable costs and rigorous expense management. As for 2025, it is believed that most brewers will benefit from the alleviation of sales pressure, and the sales recovery in the second half of 2025 is expected to accelerate from a low base. The bank believes
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