Weekend reading | The US election voting day is approaching! Three perspectives on the impact fluctuations.
Overall, the US economy is currently on a steady landing trajectory, with a slowdown but not too rapid decline. This process may be completed during the next presidential term, and the impact from the economic cycle may still be more powerful than the president's policy in the trend over the next four years.
Wall Street review of October non-farm payrolls: the data is very poor, but it does not affect the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut this month.
In the USA, the non-farm payroll employment in October plummeted to 0.012 million, far below expectations, with a 4.1% unemployment rate meeting expectations. Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the 'New Federal Reserve News Agency,' stated that the analysis of this employment report can be subjective, with most Wall Street analysts believing that the poor data was mainly due to two hurricanes in October and the Boeing strike, but some analysts are also concerned that the job market is indeed deteriorating. Almost all analysts believe that this report will not affect the expected 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
Are U.S. stocks in danger? This important indicator has hit a new high in two and a half years.
In the final weeks before the presidential election on November 5th, the sentiment on Wall Street tends to be optimistic, this "contrarian signal" may indicate that there is limited upside potential for the stock market in the usa.
What are the common driving and ending signals for the simultaneous rise of US stocks and gold?
In the past 2 years, the US stock market and gold have risen together. In the past 6 instances when the US stock market and gold rose together for at least 2 years, the US dollar index fell. Since 2023, two possible reasons for loose liquidity are: (1) Non-US central banks lowered interest rates before the Federal Reserve, leading to a global liquidity overflow effect that boosted US stocks and gold. (2) Liquidity released through other means in the United States offset the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, resulting in significant liquidity loosening. It is expected that the US economy will accelerate its downturn in 2025, causing a reversal in dollar liquidity, and the resonance rise in US stocks and gold over the past 2 years due to liquidity expansion will reverse.
Goldman Sachs trader exclaimed that the current trading is rare: I don't remember when the "panic index" exceeded 20, and clients are still uniformly bullish.
Goldman Sachs traders have also found that hedge funds continue to trade as "winners of Republican policies" at an extremely high speed. If Harris is elected, these recently increased positions will be drastically liquidated; a month ago, clients' views were "risk reduction" and "wait and see", until the election results were announced, now completely changed, clients have started to take an aggressive stance on Trump trades, shorting the tariff basket, going long on the Republican policy theme basket, and going long on cryptos ETF.
Top 20 turnover | nvidia rose nearly 2%, with a turnover exceeding 28.1 billion US dollars; amazon soared over 6% after performance, with a turnover exceeding 19.8 billion US dollars
On Friday, Nvidia ranked first in trading volume in the US stock market, with a 1.99% increase, trading $26.528 billion. Amazon ranked second with a 6.19% increase, trading $19.592 billion. Apple, the third, dropped by 1.33%, trading $14.138 billion.