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Express News | Securities Daily: The effects of the bullish policies in the real estate market continue, and the expectations for the real estate market in 2025 are likely to improve.
It's once again the annual mortgage repricing day, and Banks personnel candidly state that "revenue pressure is increasing." How to stabilize the interest margin under the expectation of interest rate cuts?
① With the arrival of the repricing cycle on January 1st, many industry professionals who spoke with reporters from the Financial Association stated that "revenue pressure is increasing." ② Looking ahead to 2025, many experts believe that the policy interest rates need to be further lowered during the year, and mortgage rates will continue to decline. ③ From the perspective of the Industry, controlling costs remains the primary measure each bank is taking to ease the downward pressure on interest margins.
"No price limit" has sparked intense competition: in Peking, the two plots have attracted over 400 rounds of bidding, totaling nearly 18.2 billion.
At the beginning of 2025, the Peking land auction market welcomed a strong start, with two plots sold for nearly 18.2 billion yuan at a High Stock Price. Due to the absence of price limits on these two plots, developers fiercely competed, with a total of over 400 bidding rounds for the two plots.
Key cities in the real estate market showed a "tail-end" finish in December last year, with expectations for year-on-year growth still being positive in the first quarter.
In December, the real estate market concluded with a "tail-up" trend, and it is expected that there will still be positive year-on-year growth in the first quarter.
At the end of 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will see a rebound in sales, with the number of companies exceeding one billion reduced to 11.
By the end of 2024, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will show a tail end market trend; the number of billion-yuan and hundred-million-yuan real estate companies continues to decrease, with the number of billion-yuan companies further reduced to 11 in 2024, returning to the level of 2016.
Daily summary of Real Estate Industry news (2025-01-02)
On December 31, the Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association released data showing that in December 2024 (statistical period: November 26 to December 25, 2024), the number of online signed second-hand Residence transactions in Guangzhou was 11,494, a year-on-year increase of 17.33%; the signed area was 1.1716 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.83%.
According to Citigroup in its report "Major Companies," domestic property sales are expected to decline by 23% year-on-year this year, with KE Holdings (02423.HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (01109.HK), and Greentown (03900.HK) as top picks.
Citibank's research report indicates that sales in the domestic property market are expected to decline by 23% year-on-year this year, and it noted that land acquisitions in the first ten months of last year decreased by 65% year-on-year. However, this decline may be slightly alleviated by the warming trend in land purchases in major cities such as Shanghai, Peking, and Hangzhou in November and December, with China Overseas (00688.HK), Sunac (01109.HK), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK), and Greentown (03900.HK) being the most active. The bank also listed its favorites, including KE Holdings (02423.HK), Sunac, and Greentown, pointing out that while the policy direction is correct, it requires time. The bank stated that the Industry
Kunming introduces 28 new policies for the housing market, including the cancellation of housing classification standards.
The office of the Kunming Municipal People's Government has issued "Several Measures for Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market," proposing 28 measures from various aspects including strengthening land management, supporting housing Consumer, accelerating the digestion of existing Commodity housing, optimizing pre-sale management, improving the quality of Real Estate Development, and strengthening the guarantee of resources, to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. In terms of strengthening land management, it is proposed to reasonably regulate the supply of land for Commodity residences, and for counties (cities) where the inventory digestion cycle of Commodity residences exceeds 36 months, new supply of land for Commodity residences will be suspended; for counties where the inventory digestion cycle of Commodity residences is between 18 and 36 months.
Hong Kong stocks are experiencing fluctuations | Most Mainland Real Estate stocks are down as the top 100 property companies continue to consolidate their sales in 2024, and the Industry landscape continues to differentiate.
Most Mainland Real Estate stocks fell. As of the time of writing, CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) dropped 3.39%, trading at 1.71 Hong Kong dollars; SEAZEN (01030) fell 3.3%, trading at 1.76 Hong Kong dollars; RONSHINECHINA (03301) decreased by 2.67%, trading at 0.365 Hong Kong dollars.
In Xiamen, the minimum down payment for a second home purchased with housing provident fund loans has been lowered to 20%.
The Xiamen Housing Provident Fund Center recently issued a notice regarding the optimization of the family housing unit recognition standards for housing provident fund loans and adjustments to the down payment ratio for housing provident fund loans. It states that for those applying for housing provident fund loans to purchase a second set of housing, the minimum down payment ratio has been reduced from 25% to 20%. For those using housing provident fund loans to purchase affordable housing, the minimum down payment ratio is 15%. The recognition standards for family housing units under housing provident fund loans are consistent with those under commercial housing loans, based on the jurisdiction of the intended purchase location. If there is no housing in the jurisdiction where the intended purchase is located, or within the jurisdiction of the intended housing purchase.
Starting from yesterday, the mainland has lowered the interest rates on existing personal housing provident fund loans.
The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points last May. According to regulations, personal housing loans from the housing provident fund that had already been issued prior to this will implement the new interest rate starting from yesterday (the 1st). Personal housing loans issued before May 18, 2024, meaning existing housing loans, started yesterday, and the corresponding interest rates for first and second housing loans have been adjusted. Among them, the interest rate for first-time owner-occupied housing loans for under five years is 2.35%, and for over five years is 2.85%. The interest rate for second housing loans for under five years is 2.775%, and for over five years the rate is 3.
Express News | GTJA remains Bullish on the resource integration and restructuring opportunities in the Real Estate Sector in 2025.
Kerry Real Estate: It takes time for the real estate market recovery to translate into investment. It is expected that corporate investment will continue to be cautious and differentiated next year.
In 2025, the core cities are expected to see localized investment hot spots, led by state-owned enterprises.
In Hangzhou, seven plots of land were sold for 14.56 billion yuan, with China Overseas, China Merchants, and Greentown winning the bids at a premium.
In Zhejiang, Hangzhou successfully sold seven plots of land, with a total starting price of 11.19 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) and a total Fill Price of 14.562 billion yuan. The total area of the seven plots is 440 acres, with a total building area of 0.615 million square meters, distributed in Shangcheng District's Qianjiang New City Phase II, Binjiang District's Xixing, Xiaoshan District's Shibei, Yuhang District's Future Technology City and Xianlin, Qiantang District's Xiasha, and FORTUNE SUN District's Fuchunwan New City. Except for the plot in Fuchunwan New City, which was sold at the base price, all other plots were sold at a premium. Among them, Hangzhou Zhonghai Hongkun Real Estate (Zhonghai) won the plot in Binjiang District's Xixing with a total price of 4.49 billion yuan, with a floor price of 44,673 yuan per square meter.
According to the Institutions of Ke Rui, the sales amount of the top 100 mainland real estate companies remained stable year-on-year last month.
According to a Mainland Real Estate Research Institutions, CRIC, with the year-end sales "sprint season" combined with the impact of Bullish policies, last month's performance of real estate companies showed an upward trend. According to the latest Statistics, in December alone, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales operating amount of 451.39 billion yuan (RMB), flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 24.2%. For the entire year, the top 100 real estate companies realized a year-on-year decline of 28.1% in sales operating amount, a decrease narrowed by nearly 2.6 percentage points compared to November. The report indicates that, overall, last year the domestic real estate market continued to adjust to establish a bottom, with the first three quarters essentially running at a low level, benefiting from policies released at the end of September.
According to the Central Plains Research Institute, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies last year fell by 30.6% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline compared to last month.
The Zhongzhong Research Institute published a report stating that in 2024, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies is about 4.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%, with a reduction of 2.3 percentage points compared to last month, and the real estate market overall still shows a trend of adjustment.
In the Shenzhen real estate market last year, the transaction of new and second-hand houses reached 0.0925 million units, an annual increase of 44%.
According to the statistics released by the LeYouJia Research Center, in 2024, there were 0.0379 million new residential presale contracts signed in Shenzhen, 0.0545 million second-hand residential contracts signed, totaling 0.0925 million units sold, with an annual increase of 44%. In addition, while the Fill Price for second-hand homes fell slightly by 3%, this was a significant narrowing compared to a 12% decline in 2023, and in the fourth quarter of last year, there was a noticeable trend of "stopping the decline and returning to stability".
Express News | Ping An Securities: The top 100 sales continue to stabilize, and leading real estate companies exhibit greater resilience.
China Finger Research Institute: In 2024, the total land acquisition amount for the TOP 100 enterprises is 928 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%.
According to the China Index Academy, in 2024, the total land acquisition amount for the TOP 100 enterprises was 928 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%, with the decline narrowing by 1.8 percentage points compared to January-November.
Express News | In 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 4354.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.6%.
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