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Australia's Treasury Minister: The government predicts that the budget deficit will widen and economic growth will weaken.
Gelonghui, December 18 | Australian Treasurer Chalmers predicts that the government's financial outlook will deteriorate significantly due to falling CSI Commodity Equity Index prices and an increase in spending commitments that erode the budget surplus. The Australian government's mid-year economic and fiscal outlook report expects that, compared to the May forecast, the budget balance over the next four years will worsen by approximately 22 billion Australian Dollar (about 13.94 billion USD), and a budget deficit is expected to become the norm over the next decade. The budget update report released on Wednesday is one of the last official statements from the Australian government this year, as the country will hold a federal election before mid-May next year. The budget deterioration is expected to trigger concerns in Australia.
Australia expects the budget deficit to widen before the 2025 election, with the first interest rate cut possibly occurring in April or May next year.
The mid-year fiscal update indicates that due to increased government spending, Australia's budget is expected to fall further into deficit in the coming years, while the Australian election will be held in less than six months. According to the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook released on Wednesday, although the budget deficit for this fiscal year is expected to narrow slightly to 26.9 billion Australian Dollar (17.1 billion USD), it will expand to 46.9 billion Australian Dollar by 2025-26, which is 1.6% of GDP, and will remain at or above 1% of GDP. The Treasury has also slightly downgraded the economic outlook for this fiscal year and the next fiscal year due to rising interest rates dragging down private sector activity.
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Australia's Private-Sector Business Activity Falls to Three-Month Low in December
Australia Names Fry-McKibbin, Baker to RBA's Rate-Setting Board
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RBA's Hunter Offers No Guidance on Future Monetary Policy
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Australia's Labour Market Defies Expectations
Australia's employment data for November is strong, which may suppress the outlook for interest rate cuts before February.
The Australian labor market continues to withstand the pressures of economic weakness, and with another robust month of job growth, the unemployment rate significantly dropped to 3.9% in November, which may put an end to the increasing discussions about interest rate cuts in February. Economists had previously expected the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2%, consistent with recently shown data indicating the economy struggled in the third quarter. In the third quarter of this year, the economy grew only 0.8% year-on-year, marking the last time such a growth rate was recorded during the economic recession of the early 1990s. Nevertheless, the Australian Bureau of Statistics stated on Thursday that an additional 35,600 jobs were created in November.
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