UBMAIN Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures(DEC4)
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Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures(DEC4) News
Direct hit on the USA election: When is the earliest possible outcome of this election?
The earliest time the results of this year's usa election will be announced. Market volatility is likely to soar, traders need to do risk management.
Did the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November to stabilize? Major banks collectively warned: the subsequent easing path may be less than expected!
Last week, a series of economic data in the usa indicated that inflation continued to slow, signs of cooling in the labor market, while consumer spending remained robust. However, the core issue currently facing the policymakers at the Federal Reserve is: how long will these trends continue, and at what level should interest rates remain stable?
"Bond Guardian" returns! Regardless of who wins, will US bond yields still hit 5%?
Bond investors are "voting with their feet," betting that the continued interest rate cuts by the Fed and the expansionary fiscal policy of the next government will push up long-term inflation. Once the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is pushed up to 5%, it will impact the Fed's subsequent rate-cutting actions.
US stock market early trading | Three major indices rise together, 'Trump trade' heating up across the board! DJT up nearly 13%, cryptos concept stocks on the rise; growth tech stocks generally up, palantir soars over 20% after earnings.
As of the press time, the three major US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow up 0.44%, the Nasdaq up 1%, and the s&p 500 index up 0.72%.
Before the USA election, the top five busiest trades.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded by about 70 basis points from the recent low, while the U.S. dollar has also rebounded by 3.3% from its low point. Bitcoin fell after hitting a historical high last week, with bank stocks and clean energy stocks rising and falling by about 5% respectively in the past month, but both reversed course on Monday. DJT has risen over 180% since its low point.
The most likely two scenarios for the USA presidential election, how to trade? This is the answer from Goldman Sachs.
Daiwa stated that the market is still inclined towards Trump winning and the Republicans sweeping Congress. In this scenario, if the volatility of US bond yields remains limited, cyclical stocks will perform well. At the same time, the possibility of Harris winning and Congress being divided is also increasing, in which case consumer stocks affected by tariffs and wind power stocks will perform well.
US Stock Market Outlook | The peak battle of the US election! Trump's technology stocks surged more than 9% in pre-market trading, while the three major US stock index futures rose slightly, and Chinese concept stocks rose collectively.
Well-known Wall Street bear 'surrenders'! Bullish on s&p 500 to rise to 6100 points before the year-end; Palantir surges over 14% pre-market, Q3 earnings exceed expectations, raising annual revenue guidance; Super Micro Computer faces new crisis amid accounting scandal, nvidia rumored to transfer orders to other suppliers.
Express News | On the day of the general election voting, the U.S. bond market is jittery, and the volatility indicator has reached a one-year high.
How will the sector rotation of US stocks develop after the election? JPMorgan has provided four possible outcomes.
JPMorgan expects that the red sweep will introduce positive policies, tax cuts, and relaxed regulations in key industries such as energy, banks, industry, and transportation, while the blue sweep may not be as favorable to the stock market. It is expected that Democrats will prioritize financial measures targeting green energy, medical care reform, and potentially increasing corporate taxes.
Daily options tracking | Up 14% after hours! Palantir pre-earnings options trading volume increased by 1.2 times; US bond etf call options made a profit of 200%, implied volatility level approaching historical highs before the election.
Nvidia rose by 0.48% yesterday, with its market cap surpassing Apple to become the global number one at one point. A big player bought calls worth 3 million USD; there are 45 million USD in put options on SPY, with big players betting on a drop in the S&P 500 by the end of the year.
On election day, what are the trustworthy aspects of the 'Trump trade'?
In a series of 'Trump trades,' which ones are truly effective 'Trump trades'? And which ones may be mere imposters or misrepresentations?
Taking history as a mirror: What has been the trend of the US stock market after each major election?
History shows that the stock market in the USA typically rises after presidential elections, but first, it is necessary to prepare for some short-term fluctuations.
Goldman Sachs firmly believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, and will continue to cut four times in the first half of next year.
Goldman Sachs chief economist continues to predict that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, but be cautious of these risks...
U.S. election approaching, traders' positions reversed: net long interest rates turned net short, 'fear index' VIX turned net long.
The hold positions in VIX turned net long for the first time since 2018, but the stock market position remains net long; silver's net long position has risen to an eight-year high; in recent weeks, the US dollar position has shifted from net short to net long.
How does Trump's tariff plan affect the situation? Study: American consumers' purchasing power may evaporate by $78 billion each year.
①A study released on Monday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that if Trump's new import tariff proposal is implemented, American consumers could potentially lose up to $78 billion in purchasing power annually; ② The report states that if import tariffs are implemented, it will further exacerbate the impact on low-income families, tightening their budgets even more.
Wall Street executives question: Fed's loose monetary policy may fall short of expectations
Due to concerns about the resurgence of inflation, many chief executives of large investment banks do not agree that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice before the end of the year.
Facing the impact of election day: the usa stock, bond, and currency markets are entering a 'battle state'!
①As the polls continue to show intense competition in the US presidential election, on the first trading day of the "super week" of the election and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, US stocks, the US dollar, and US bond yields have all fallen; ②At the same time, traders in various cross-asset sectors have entered the final preparation mode before the election day...
Will the US stock market hit a new high after the election? Goldman Sachs: FOMO mentality helps, S&P is expected to reach 6100 points by the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley's Chief US Stock Strategist Wilson predicts that the S&P will reach a highest of 6100 points by the end of this year, equivalent to a 6.5% increase compared to last Friday's close. At the same time, he warns that due to the lack of clear catalysts, the enthusiasm of the US stock market may fade as 2025 approaches. He believes that the most favorable outcome for the stock market is Trump's re-election and a divided Congress, as markets favor uncertainty.
Futu Morning Post | Countdown to the election! The panic index VIX is burning high and uncertainty is haunting the market nerves; Up nearly 13% after hours! Palantir raises full-year revenue guidance
Jpmorgan warns: If Trump wins on Wednesday, the Fed may pause the easing cycle as early as December; Will the US stock market hit new highs after the election? Jpmorgan: FOMO psychology boosts, S&P may hit 6100 points by the end of the year; US polls: Harris and Trump are neck and neck in key 'swing states'.
Bond traders are withdrawing from the "Trump trade" and are no longer betting on rising inflation expectations.
On Monday, USA Vice President Harris received the final support of voters in key states, while participants in the bond market have withdrawn from the "Trump trade" and are no longer betting on rising inflation expectations.